v0.2.0Evidence developingGeorgia Governor · Research Preview · Nov 3, 2026
Keisha Lance Bottoms is favored, but a Rick Jackson win remains plausible.
This research preview is centered on reviewed polling and calibrated gubernatorial polling error. Certified past results are shown for context and add zero forecast points.
Conditional modeled chance to win · two modeled major candidates only · not projected vote share
Keisha Lance Bottoms +2.680% range: Rick Jackson +2.6 to Keisha Lance Bottoms +7.7
Conditional modeled chance to win · two modeled major candidates only · not projected vote share
Keisha Lance Bottoms +2.680% range: Rick Jackson +4.8 to Keisha Lance Bottoms +10.1
Evidence desk · Snapshot note
Keisha Lance Bottoms is favored by a polling-only research preview; certified historical results are shown for comparison, add zero forecast points, and published uncertainty leaves both candidates a credible path.
Published fallback
The published polling-only research preview favors Keisha Lance Bottoms, with current polling pointing to Keisha Lance Bottoms. Certified historical results produce a Republican comparison margin, but that reference belongs to earlier candidates and adds zero forecast points. The uncertainty range leaves room for either candidate, so this is not treated as a certain outcome.
Keisha Lance Bottoms's evidence-based path is for the polling signal to hold up as more independent surveys arrive. The other candidate needs new verified polling to move that signal; these are conditional paths, not campaign recommendations or separate probabilities.
Watch whether future independent polling confirms or changes the present estimate. That evidence would update the polling center, while the historical comparison would remain descriptive rather than becoming a hidden model input.
Prepared from this forecast snapshot and the sources below.
Keisha Lance Bottoms's clearest path is for the current polling signal to be confirmed by additional independent surveys.
Rick Jackson's clearest path requires new verified polling to move away from the present signal; the published uncertainty still leaves room for that reversal.
Official forecast unchanged · Commentary only · Forecast effect 0
Deterministic race brief
Built directly from the published forecast and reviewed evidence. Model-assisted answers may explain this record, but they cannot revise it.
Keisha Lance Bottoms is the model favorite. Rick Jackson remains inside the model's central range of outcomes.
5 reviewed polls from 5 pollsters. Latest fieldwork ended Aug 3, 2026; sponsor: Natural Gas Association of Georgia.
Latest release · Quantus InsightsWe call it close because the central range crosses an even race. The zero-effect historical reference is Republican +4.9, while the modeled polling estimate points to Keisha Lance Bottoms +2.6.
Open the published forecast artifactThese evidence-cited readings explain plausible pressure on the race. Dependency groups separate mechanisms; shared-sample labels identify reused respondents across mechanisms. Neither is independent or additive.
No candidate-directed context has passed review yet.
No candidate-directed context has passed review yet.
The path is strongest if independent polls confirm the current lead and the supportive conditions below continue to hold.
No reviewed candidate-directed context yet.
No opposing directional context has passed review.
If these conditions change, the path changes. This is a scenario, not a second forecast.
The path requires reviewed polling to move toward Rick Jackson while the supportive conditions below hold.
No reviewed candidate-directed context yet.
No opposing directional context has passed review.
If these conditions change, the path changes. This is a scenario, not a second forecast.
A Bottoms win would at minimum break current unified Republican control, while a Jackson win would preserve Republican executive control.
Observed: Georgia currently has a Republican governor and Republican majorities in both legislative chambers, with every legislative seat also on the 2026 ballot.
What would change this: Certified legislative results would establish the actual governing-control outcome.
Dependency group · Ga State Control 2026
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution · State of GeorgiaThe page reports a descriptive runoff probability and uses a simplified eventual-winner assumption.
Observed: Georgia law requires a majority for statewide office and sends the top two candidates to a runoff when no one reaches it; the official calendar lists November 3 and a possible December 1 runoff.
What would change this: A certified full field, full-field polling, and a separately calibrated runoff model would support a richer treatment.
Dependency group · Ga Ballot Runoff 2026
Georgia General Assembly text via Justia · State of GeorgiaEvidence desk · Published record
Ask what drives the forecast, what would need to change, or how a conditional scenario could play out in Georgia Governor.
Questions worth asking
Evidence map
The certified-result stations are descriptive references, not sequential model updates. The final two stations show the modeled polling center and forecast uncertainty.
Stacey Abrams versus Brian Kemp, shown only as a statewide historical comparison.
Georgia's certified presidential vote, shown only as a recent statewide comparison.
The midpoint of the certified governor and presidential two-party margins. It is a descriptive comparison with exactly zero separate forecast effect.
Quality-, recency-, sponsor-, and correlation-adjusted estimate from reviewed polls.
The current polling center with uncertainty set by the nearest out-of-time gubernatorial polling-error calibration; historical reference results add no points.
Since the last run
Future changes will be tied to a poll, data release, or documented model update.
Calibration before confidence
Verified context stays outside the probability until it demonstrates predictive value in an out-of-sample election test.
Official primary results establish Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson as the major-party nominees; the complete November ballot remains provisional.
The prior governor and presidential results are displayed for context and add zero forecast points.
Reviewed polls use the same recency, quality, sponsor, and pollster-correlation controls as the archived backtest.
2 reviewed assessments explain direction and caveats with exactly zero forecast effect.
The error layer is historically calibrated; the full race-specific publication remains a research preview.
Historical check
Out-of-time production-aggregator polling error by days before Election Day. This calibrates the polls-only baseline and does not validate the full fundamentals model.
Read the complete backtest limits →Race replay
Move through the record one dated input at a time. The tape reveals a probability only when an archived model run exists; news never receives an automatic sentiment score.
Report a descriptive runoff probability and disclose that no separate runoff-campaign movement is simulated.
Reviewed releases
Swipe the table for other share and model use →
| Pollster / dates | Sample | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Rick Jackson | Other / undecided | Review / use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus InsightsSponsor: Natural Gas Association of Georgia | 815 LV | 46.4% | 44.9% | 1% / 7.7% | Accepted With PenaltyIn current average |
| Fabrizio Ward / Impact ResearchSponsor: AARP Georgia | 1,060 LV | 48% | 46% | — / 5% | AcceptedIn current average |
| State NavigateSponsor: State Navigate | 448 LV | 51% | 44% | — / 4% | Accepted With PenaltyIn current average |
| Wick ResearchSponsor: Undisclosed | 1,175 LV | 42.7% | 43.2% | — / 14.1% | Accepted With PenaltyIn current average |
| Beacon Research / Shaw & Company ResearchSponsor: Fox News | 1,002 RV | 52% | 47% | — / 1% | AcceptedIn current average |
News with a paper trail
Official primary and runoff results establish the Democratic and Republican nominees; the complete November field is still marked provisional.
Model treatment: Set the two modeled major candidates and preserve a full-field warning; no margin adjustment.The bipartisan survey reports Bottoms narrowly ahead of Jackson and supplies an original methodology and questionnaire.
Model treatment: Include through the documented poll-quality, recency, and correlation controls.A candidate must receive a majority; otherwise the top two advance to a runoff scheduled for December 1.
Model treatment: Report a descriptive runoff probability and disclose that no separate runoff-campaign movement is simulated.Built to be challenged
Every published run points back to its inputs, rules, simulation seed, and model version. Corrections create a new record instead of rewriting history.
Bind the candidate field and certified historical references to dated sources.
Adjust current polling for recency, sponsor, quality, and repeated pollsters.
Apply the nearest out-of-time gubernatorial polling-error calibration across the simulated outcome.
Publish the forecast artifact, source manifest, warnings, and validation state together.