{ "schema_version": "forecast-artifact.v1", "run": { "run_id": "2026-08-24T20-35-00-04-00__m0.2.0__dd327e5617839", "status": "research_preview", "generated_at": "2026-08-24T20:35:00-04:00", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-24T20:10:00-04:00", "election_date": "2026-11-03", "timezone": "America/New_York", "days_to_election": 71, "model_version": "0.2.0", "methodology_version": "generic-polling-0.2", "data_version": "d327e5617839", "simulation_count": 40000, "random_seed": 2026082403, "validation_state": "research_preview", "model_kind": "polling_only_research_preview" }, "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "keisha_lance_bottoms", "name": "Keisha Lance Bottoms", "party": "Democratic", "role": "democratic_nominee", "is_aggregate": false }, { "candidate_id": "rick_jackson", "name": "Rick Jackson", "party": "Republican", "role": "republican_nominee", "is_aggregate": false }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Other candidates", "party": "Other", "role": "aggregate_remainder", "is_aggregate": true } ], "views": { "nowcast": { "label": "If voting ended today", "leader_candidate_id": "keisha_lance_bottoms", "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "keisha_lance_bottoms", "name": "Keisha Lance Bottoms", "party": "Democratic", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.736275, "vote_share": { "median": 50.4994, "mean": 50.4891, "interval_50": { "lower": 49.0075, "upper": 52.0044 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 47.6425, "upper": 53.3119 } } }, { "candidate_id": "rick_jackson", "name": "Rick Jackson", "party": "Republican", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.263725, "vote_share": { "median": 47.9279, "mean": 47.9186, "interval_50": { "lower": 46.446, "upper": 49.4024 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 45.0877, "upper": 50.7108 } } }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Other candidates", "party": "Other", "is_aggregate": true, "win_probability": null, "win_probability_status": "not_modeled", "vote_share": { "median": 1.1037, "mean": 1.5923, "interval_50": { "lower": 0.0, "upper": 2.6919 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4.1056 } } } ], "probability_scope": "conditional_on_one_of_the_two_modeled_major_candidates_winning", "major_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.5681, "mean": 2.5705, "interval_50": { "lower": -0.1771, "upper": 5.3101 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -2.6057, "upper": 7.7436 } }, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.6132, "mean": 2.612, "interval_50": { "lower": -0.18, "upper": 5.3928 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -2.6458, "upper": 7.8659 } }, "margin_convention": "Positive values indicate Keisha Lance Bottoms leads; negative values indicate Rick Jackson leads." }, "election_forecast": { "label": "Eventual winner research preview", "leader_candidate_id": "keisha_lance_bottoms", "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "keisha_lance_bottoms", "name": "Keisha Lance Bottoms", "party": "Democratic", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.681975, "vote_share": { "median": 50.4212, "mean": 50.4132, "interval_50": { "lower": 48.3785, "upper": 52.4348 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 46.4545, "upper": 54.3986 } } }, { "candidate_id": "rick_jackson", "name": "Rick Jackson", "party": "Republican", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.318025, "vote_share": { "median": 47.8266, "mean": 47.8059, "interval_50": { "lower": 45.7918, "upper": 49.8122 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 43.8684, "upper": 51.7272 } } }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Other candidates", "party": "Other", "is_aggregate": true, "win_probability": null, "win_probability_status": "not_modeled", "vote_share": { "median": 1.0998, "mean": 1.7809, "interval_50": { "lower": 0.0, "upper": 3.0479 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.0, "upper": 4.8049 } } } ], "probability_scope": "conditional_on_one_of_the_two_modeled_major_candidates_winning", "major_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.612, "mean": 2.6072, "interval_50": { "lower": -1.1474, "upper": 6.3432 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -4.8064, "upper": 10.0792 } }, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.6581, "mean": 2.654, "interval_50": { "lower": -1.173, "upper": 6.4542 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -4.8818, "upper": 10.2514 } }, "margin_convention": "Positive values indicate Keisha Lance Bottoms leads; negative values indicate Rick Jackson leads." } }, "components": { "polls": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.6132, "mean": 2.612, "interval_50": { "lower": -0.18, "upper": 5.3928 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -2.6458, "upper": 7.8659 } }, "accepted_count": 5, "distinct_pollsters": 5, "effective_poll_count": 3.9909 }, "historical_reference": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -4.899, "mean": -4.899, "interval_50": { "lower": -4.899, "upper": -4.899 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -4.899, "upper": -4.899 } }, "forecast_effect": 0 }, "combined": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.6581, "mean": 2.654, "interval_50": { "lower": -1.173, "upper": 6.4542 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -4.8818, "upper": 10.2514 } }, "poll_influence": 1.0, "historical_reference_influence": 0.0, "historical_error_calibration": { "algorithm_version": "weighted-poll-baseline-0.1.0", "implementation_version": "production-poll-aggregation-backtest-0.3.0", "scope": "Out-of-time production-aggregator polling error by days before Election Day. This calibrates the polls-only baseline and does not validate the full fundamentals model.", "selected_horizon_days": 60, "selected_stratum": "robust_polling", "race_count": 21, "mae": 5.5537, "rmse": 6.2599, "error_sd": 6.3333, "central_80_error": [ -8.7387, 7.3942 ] }, "error_distribution": "student_t", "error_degrees_of_freedom": 7.0 }, "election_rule": { "rule": "majority_runoff", "runoff_probability": 0.21495, "treatment": "The research preview assumes the simulated two-major-candidate leader would also win any runoff. The displayed runoff probability is descriptive; no separate runoff-campaign movement is simulated." } }, "bridge": [ { "stage_id": "previous_governor_result", "label": "Certified 2022 governor result", "description": "Stacey Abrams versus Brian Kemp, shown only as a statewide historical comparison.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -7.5893, "mean": -7.5893, "interval_50": { "lower": -7.5893, "upper": -7.5893 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -7.5893, "upper": -7.5893 } }, "candidate_vote_shares": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 45.876191, "rick_jackson": 53.411436, "other_candidates": 0.712373 }, "source_ids": [ "ga_sos_2022_governor" ], "forecast_effect": 0, "is_model_estimate": false }, { "stage_id": "presidential_2024_result", "label": "Certified 2024 presidential result", "description": "Georgia's certified presidential vote, shown only as a recent statewide comparison.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -2.2087, "mean": -2.2087, "interval_50": { "lower": -2.2087, "upper": -2.2087 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -2.2087, "upper": -2.2087 } }, "candidate_vote_shares": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 48.533223, "rick_jackson": 50.725584, "other_candidates": 0.741193 }, "source_ids": [ "ga_sos_2024_president" ], "forecast_effect": 0, "is_model_estimate": false }, { "stage_id": "structural_2026", "label": "Historical reference midpoint", "description": "The midpoint of the certified governor and presidential two-party margins. It is a descriptive comparison with exactly zero separate forecast effect.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -4.899, "mean": -4.899, "interval_50": { "lower": -4.899, "upper": -4.899 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -4.899, "upper": -4.899 } }, "forecast_effect": 0, "is_model_estimate": false }, { "stage_id": "current_polls", "label": "Current polls", "description": "Quality-, recency-, sponsor-, and correlation-adjusted estimate from reviewed polls.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.6132, "mean": 2.612, "interval_50": { "lower": -0.18, "upper": 5.3928 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -2.6458, "upper": 7.8659 } }, "available": true, "is_model_estimate": true }, { "stage_id": "november_forecast", "label": "Election Day forecast", "description": "The current polling center with uncertainty set by the nearest out-of-time gubernatorial polling-error calibration; historical reference results add no points.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.6581, "mean": 2.654, "interval_50": { "lower": -1.173, "upper": 6.4542 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -4.8818, "upper": 10.2514 } }, "is_model_estimate": true } ], "bridge_diagnostics": null, "polls": [ { "poll_id": "2026-08-03-quantus-bottoms-jackson", "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": "Natural Gas Association of Georgia", "partisan_sponsor": "O", "field_start": "2026-07-29", "field_end": "2026-08-03", "published_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:59.999999-04:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 815, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Mixed online panel and SMS-to-mobile", "raw": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 46.4, "rick_jackson": 44.9, "other": 1.0, "undecided": 7.7 }, "other_share_disclosed": true, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 1.642935, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 1.642935, "other_decided_share": 1.083424, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.286875, "recency_multiplier": 0.594604, "sampling_sd": 3.502374, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original report reviewed. Apply an issue-advocacy sponsor penalty. The report's cover and methodology page conflict on field dates; the methodology dates are retained.", "source_id": "ga_quantus_august_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.185996, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included under the generic polling-only research-preview rules." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-07-16-aarp-bottoms-jackson", "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward / Impact Research", "sponsor": "AARP Georgia", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-13", "field_end": "2026-07-16", "published_at": "2026-07-23T23:59:59.999999-04:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 1060, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Mixed live telephone and SMS-to-web", "raw": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 48.0, "rick_jackson": 46.0, "other": null, "undecided": 5.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 2.12766, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 2.12766, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.7125, "recency_multiplier": 0.38081, "sampling_sd": 3.07078, "review_status": "accepted", "review_note": "Original bipartisan methodology and questionnaire reviewed; random Georgia voter-list sample with live landline, live cell, and SMS-to-web interviews. Reported percentages round to 99 and other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "ga_aarp_july_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.38486, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included under the generic polling-only research-preview rules." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-07-13-statenavigate-bottoms-jackson", "pollster": "State Navigate", "sponsor": "State Navigate", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-10", "field_end": "2026-07-13", "published_at": "2026-07-17T23:59:59.999999-04:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 448, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Text-to-web", "raw": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 51.0, "rick_jackson": 44.0, "other": null, "undecided": 4.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 7.368421, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 7.368421, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.3825, "recency_multiplier": 0.353553, "sampling_sd": 4.711713, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "The release self-reports a recalled 2024 sample much more Democratic than the certified result and contains incorrect election-calendar dates; apply a substantial disclosure and composition penalty. Percentages round to 99 and other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "ga_statenavigate_july_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.081477, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included under the generic polling-only research-preview rules." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-06-30-wick-bottoms-jackson", "pollster": "Wick Research", "sponsor": "Undisclosed", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-27", "field_end": "2026-06-30", "published_at": "2026-07-08T23:59:59.999999-04:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 1175, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Text-to-web", "raw": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 42.7, "rick_jackson": 43.2, "other": null, "undecided": 14.1 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": -0.582072, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -0.582072, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.3825, "recency_multiplier": 0.256266, "sampling_sd": 2.91725, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original questionnaire and topline reviewed. Sponsor, panel frame, weighting targets, and full likely-voter inclusion rule are not disclosed; fixed candidate order follows several political questions and other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "ga_wick_june_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.154057, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included under the generic polling-only research-preview rules." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-06-27-fox-bottoms-jackson", "pollster": "Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research", "sponsor": "Fox News", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-23", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published_at": "2026-07-01T23:59:59.999999-04:00", "population": "RV", "sample_size": 1002, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Mixed live telephone and SMS-to-web", "raw": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 52.0, "rick_jackson": 47.0, "other": null, "undecided": 1.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 5.050505, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 5.050505, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.605625, "recency_multiplier": 0.237924, "sampling_sd": 3.155088, "review_status": "accepted", "review_note": "Original topline reviewed. Random statewide voter-file sample with live landline, live cell, and SMS-to-web interviews; registered-voter population multiplier applies and other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "ga_fox_june_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.193609, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included under the generic polling-only research-preview rules." } } ], "poll_ledger": [ { "poll_id": "2026-08-03-quantus-bottoms-jackson", "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": "Natural Gas Association of Georgia", "partisan_sponsor": "O", "field_start": "2026-07-29", "field_end": "2026-08-03", "published_at": "2026-08-10T23:59:59.999999-04:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 815, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Mixed online panel and SMS-to-mobile", "raw": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 46.4, "rick_jackson": 44.9, "other": 1.0, "undecided": 7.7 }, "other_share_disclosed": true, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 1.642935, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 1.642935, "other_decided_share": 1.083424, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.286875, "recency_multiplier": 0.594604, "sampling_sd": 3.502374, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original report reviewed. Apply an issue-advocacy sponsor penalty. The report's cover and methodology page conflict on field dates; the methodology dates are retained.", "source_id": "ga_quantus_august_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.185996, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-07-16-aarp-bottoms-jackson", "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward / Impact Research", "sponsor": "AARP Georgia", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-13", "field_end": "2026-07-16", "published_at": "2026-07-23T23:59:59.999999-04:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 1060, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Mixed live telephone and SMS-to-web", "raw": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 48.0, "rick_jackson": 46.0, "other": null, "undecided": 5.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 2.12766, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 2.12766, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.7125, "recency_multiplier": 0.38081, "sampling_sd": 3.07078, "review_status": "accepted", "review_note": "Original bipartisan methodology and questionnaire reviewed; random Georgia voter-list sample with live landline, live cell, and SMS-to-web interviews. Reported percentages round to 99 and other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "ga_aarp_july_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.38486, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-07-13-statenavigate-bottoms-jackson", "pollster": "State Navigate", "sponsor": "State Navigate", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-10", "field_end": "2026-07-13", "published_at": "2026-07-17T23:59:59.999999-04:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 448, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Text-to-web", "raw": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 51.0, "rick_jackson": 44.0, "other": null, "undecided": 4.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 7.368421, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 7.368421, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.3825, "recency_multiplier": 0.353553, "sampling_sd": 4.711713, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "The release self-reports a recalled 2024 sample much more Democratic than the certified result and contains incorrect election-calendar dates; apply a substantial disclosure and composition penalty. Percentages round to 99 and other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "ga_statenavigate_july_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.081477, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-06-30-wick-bottoms-jackson", "pollster": "Wick Research", "sponsor": "Undisclosed", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-27", "field_end": "2026-06-30", "published_at": "2026-07-08T23:59:59.999999-04:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 1175, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Text-to-web", "raw": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 42.7, "rick_jackson": 43.2, "other": null, "undecided": 14.1 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": -0.582072, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -0.582072, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.3825, "recency_multiplier": 0.256266, "sampling_sd": 2.91725, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original questionnaire and topline reviewed. Sponsor, panel frame, weighting targets, and full likely-voter inclusion rule are not disclosed; fixed candidate order follows several political questions and other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "ga_wick_june_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.154057, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-06-27-fox-bottoms-jackson", "pollster": "Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research", "sponsor": "Fox News", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-23", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published_at": "2026-07-01T23:59:59.999999-04:00", "population": "RV", "sample_size": 1002, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Mixed live telephone and SMS-to-web", "raw": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 52.0, "rick_jackson": 47.0, "other": null, "undecided": 1.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 5.050505, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 5.050505, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.605625, "recency_multiplier": 0.237924, "sampling_sd": 3.155088, "review_status": "accepted", "review_note": "Original topline reviewed. Random statewide voter-file sample with live landline, live cell, and SMS-to-web interviews; registered-voter population multiplier applies and other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "ga_fox_june_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.193609, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } } ], "poll_exclusions": [], "poll_trend": [ { "date": "2026-06-27", "poll_id": "2026-06-27-fox-bottoms-jackson", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 5.050505, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "weight": 0.193609 }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "poll_id": "2026-06-30-wick-bottoms-jackson", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -0.582072, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "weight": 0.154057 }, { "date": "2026-07-13", "poll_id": "2026-07-13-statenavigate-bottoms-jackson", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 7.368421, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "weight": 0.081477 }, { "date": "2026-07-16", "poll_id": "2026-07-16-aarp-bottoms-jackson", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 2.12766, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "weight": 0.38486 }, { "date": "2026-08-03", "poll_id": "2026-08-03-quantus-bottoms-jackson", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 1.642935, "other_decided_share": 1.083424, "weight": 0.185996 } ], "probability_history": [ { "date": "2026-08-24T20:35:00-04:00", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-24T20:10:00-04:00", "run_id": "2026-08-24T20-35-00-04-00__m0.2.0__dd327e5617839", "model_version": "0.2.0", "data_version": "d327e5617839", "margin": 2.612, "low": -4.8064, "high": 10.0792, "candidate_win_probabilities": { "keisha_lance_bottoms": 0.681975, "rick_jackson": 0.318025 }, "margin_basis": "all_ballot_major_candidate_margin", "probability_scope": "conditional_on_one_of_the_two_modeled_major_candidates_winning" } ], "evidence_ledger": [ { "event_id": "ga_2026_major_party_nominees", "event_at": "2026-06-16", "published_at": "2026-06-17", "headline": "Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson become the major-party nominees", "category": "candidate_field", "candidates": [ "keisha_lance_bottoms", "rick_jackson" ], "mechanism": "candidate_field", "status": "confirmed_major_parties_full_field_provisional", "source_ids": [ "ga_sos_2026_dem_primary", "ga_sos_2026_gop_runoff" ], "summary": "Official primary and runoff results establish the Democratic and Republican nominees; the complete November field is still marked provisional.", "model_treatment": { "type": "defined_input_update", "effect": "Set the two modeled major candidates and preserve a full-field warning; no margin adjustment." } }, { "event_id": "ga_2026_july_polling", "event_at": "2026-07-16", "published_at": "2026-07-23", "headline": "AARP bipartisan survey reports a close Georgia governor race", "category": "qualifying_poll", "candidates": [ "keisha_lance_bottoms", "rick_jackson" ], "mechanism": "polling_evidence", "status": "confirmed", "source_ids": [ "ga_aarp_july_2026" ], "summary": "The bipartisan survey reports Bottoms narrowly ahead of Jackson and supplies an original methodology and questionnaire.", "model_treatment": { "type": "poll_record", "effect": "Include through the documented poll-quality, recency, and correlation controls." } }, { "event_id": "ga_2026_runoff_rule", "event_at": "2026-11-03", "published_at": "2026-08-24T08:00:00-04:00", "headline": "Georgia's majority rule can send the governor race to a December runoff", "category": "election_rule", "candidates": [ "keisha_lance_bottoms", "rick_jackson", "other_candidates" ], "mechanism": "majority_runoff", "status": "confirmed", "source_ids": [ "ga_runoff_law", "ga_election_guide_2026" ], "summary": "A candidate must receive a majority; otherwise the top two advance to a runoff scheduled for December 1.", "model_treatment": { "type": "rule_disclosure", "effect": "Report a descriptive runoff probability and disclose that no separate runoff-campaign movement is simulated." } } ], "context_signals": [], "context_assessments": { "schema_version": "context-assessments.v1", "race_id": "georgia-governor-2026", "status": "reviewed", "as_of": "2026-08-24", "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0, "assessment_count": 2, "assessments": [ { "id": "ga_governing_control_stakes", "family": "state_control", "direction": "neutral", "target_candidate_id": null, "confidence": "high", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Georgia currently has a Republican governor and Republican majorities in both legislative chambers, with every legislative seat also on the 2026 ballot.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "ga_state_control_2026", "ga_government_branches" ], "current_signal_ids": [], "related_sample_ids": [] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "The governor controls vetoes, executive administration, appointments, special sessions, and major parts of budget execution.", "interpretation": "A Bottoms win would at minimum break current unified Republican control, while a Jackson win would preserve Republican executive control.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "Post-election trifecta status also depends on separate House and Senate results; the stakes do not predict voter choice.", "what_would_change_this": "Certified legislative results would establish the actual governing-control outcome." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0, "dependency_group": "ga_state_control_2026", "overlaps_model_component": [], "double_count_warning": "Political stakes are explanatory only and add exactly zero forecast points.", "cadence": "monthly", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-24" }, { "id": "ga_majority_runoff_rule", "family": "election_rules", "direction": "neutral", "target_candidate_id": null, "confidence": "high", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Georgia law requires a majority for statewide office and sends the top two candidates to a runoff when no one reaches it; the official calendar lists November 3 and a possible December 1 runoff.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "ga_runoff_law", "ga_election_guide_2026" ], "current_signal_ids": [], "related_sample_ids": [] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "A close first round with enough aggregate remainder can defer the final decision to a second election.", "interpretation": "The page reports a descriptive runoff probability and uses a simplified eventual-winner assumption.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "The generator does not simulate runoff turnout or campaign movement, and the complete general-election field remains provisional.", "what_would_change_this": "A certified full field, full-field polling, and a separately calibrated runoff model would support a richer treatment." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0, "dependency_group": "ga_ballot_runoff_2026", "overlaps_model_component": [ "election_rule" ], "double_count_warning": "The runoff rule changes outcome semantics rather than candidate support and adds no vote-margin points.", "cadence": "event_driven", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-24" } ] }, "accuracy": { "status": "research_preview", "probability_label": "polling-only research preview", "modeled_poll_count": 5, "distinct_pollsters": 5, "context_signal_count": 0, "context_signal_forecast_effect": 0, "context_assessment_count": 2, "context_assessment_forecast_effect": 0, "calibration_algorithm_version": "weighted-poll-baseline-0.1.0", "calibration_implementation_version": "production-poll-aggregation-backtest-0.3.0", "calibration_scope": "Out-of-time production-aggregator polling error by days before Election Day. This calibrates the polls-only baseline and does not validate the full fundamentals model.", "backtest_snapshots": [ { "days_before_election": 30, "series": "robust_polling", "race_count": 37, "mae": 5.5841, "rmse": 6.629, "error_sd": 6.7135, "central_80_error": [ -10.3472, 7.4356 ] }, { "days_before_election": 1, "series": "robust_polling", "race_count": 43, "mae": 4.793, "rmse": 5.9338, "error_sd": 5.9744, "central_80_error": [ -7.5576, 7.6031 ] } ], "layers": [ { "layer_id": "candidate_field", "label": "Major-party candidate field", "status": "major_party_nominees_official_general_field_provisional", "summary": "Official primary results establish Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson as the major-party nominees; the complete November ballot remains provisional." }, { "layer_id": "historical_reference", "label": "Certified historical reference", "status": "descriptive_only", "summary": "The prior governor and presidential results are displayed for context and add zero forecast points." }, { "layer_id": "poll_aggregation", "label": "Poll aggregation", "status": "historically_backtested", "summary": "Reviewed polls use the same recency, quality, sponsor, and pollster-correlation controls as the archived backtest." }, { "layer_id": "directional_context", "label": "Reviewed directional context", "status": "commentary_only", "summary": "2 reviewed assessments explain direction and caveats with exactly zero forecast effect." }, { "layer_id": "combined_probability", "label": "Polling-only win probability", "status": "end_to_end_backtest_pending", "summary": "The error layer is historically calibrated; the full race-specific publication remains a research preview." } ] }, "data_quality": { "grade": "B", "label": "developing", "score": 90, "poll_count": 5, "distinct_pollsters": 5, "fundamental_feature_count": 0, "candidate_field_status": "major_party_nominees_official_general_field_provisional", "warnings": [ { "code": "polling_only_research_preview", "severity": "warning", "message": "This expansion forecast is centered on reviewed polling. 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"title": "Georgia election survey — June 2026", "publisher": "Wick Research", "canonical_url": "https://wick.io/research-georgia-election-survey-june-2026", "source_type": "poll_release", "authority_tier": 3 }, { "source_id": "ga_fox_june_2026", "title": "Fox News Georgia survey — June 2026", "publisher": "Fox News / Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research", "canonical_url": "https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/07/fox_june-23-27-2026_complete_georgia_topline_july-1-release.pdf", "source_type": "poll_questionnaire_topline", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "ga_sos_2022_governor", "title": "Georgia 2022 general election results", "publisher": "Georgia Secretary of State", "canonical_url": "https://results.sos.ga.gov/results/public/Georgia/elections/2022NovGen", "source_type": "certified_election_result", "authority_tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "ga_sos_2024_president", "title": "Georgia 2024 general election results", "publisher": "Georgia Secretary of State", "canonical_url": "https://results.sos.ga.gov/results/public/Georgia/elections/2024NovGen", "source_type": "certified_election_result", "authority_tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "ga_state_control_2026", "title": "Democrats want to flip the Georgia Legislature", "publisher": "The Atlanta Journal-Constitution", "canonical_url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/democrats-want-to-flip-the-georgia-legislature-the-primary-offers-a-preview/", "source_type": "state_control_report", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "ga_government_branches", "title": "Three branches of Georgia's state government", "publisher": "State of Georgia", "canonical_url": "https://georgia.gov/three-branches-georgias-state-government", "source_type": "official_government_reference", "authority_tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "ga_runoff_law", "title": "Georgia Code section 21-2-501 — number of votes required", "publisher": "Georgia General Assembly text via Justia", "canonical_url": 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