Forecast desk · 2026
We focus on contests where the outcome could materially redirect public policy—and publish the evidence, assumptions, and uncertainty behind every number.
Active coverage
Each file has its own forecast, evidence ledger, update history, and permanent address.
Oregon · Governor
A Kotek–Drazan rematch after Kotek won a three-way 2022 race; without Betsy Johnson on the ballot, the central question is how that old coalition reassembles.
Modeled chance to win · not projected vote share
Tina Kotek +2.58 median margin
Wisconsin · Governor
An open race in a closely divided state where the governor can preserve or reshape the balance with a Republican-led Legislature.
Conditional modeled chance to win · two modeled major candidates only · not projected vote share
David Crowley +4.42 median margin
Nevada · Governor
A closely watched contest that could preserve divided government or combine with Democratic legislative control to create a new governing trifecta.
Conditional modeled chance to win · two modeled major candidates only · not projected vote share
Joe Lombardo +0.72 median margin
Georgia · Governor
An open-seat contest that can preserve Georgia's Republican trifecta or place a Democratic executive check at the center of state government.
Conditional modeled chance to win · two modeled major candidates only · not projected vote share
Keisha Lance Bottoms +2.61 median margin
Michigan · Governor
A term-limited open seat that will decide Michigan's executive direction while control of the Legislature remains contested separately.
Conditional modeled chance to win · two modeled major candidates only · not projected vote share
Jocelyn Benson +7.35 median margin
Why a race appears here
Coverage begins where governing stakes and measurable uncertainty meet. A race stays labeled as a research preview until its evidence and historical validation support more confidence.
The office can materially change budgets, appointments, vetoes, or the policy direction of a state.
Official results, reviewed polls, fundamentals, and campaign events can be dated, preserved, and challenged.
Every release carries its model version, input manifest, warnings, uncertainty, and an immutable run record.