Forecast desk · 2026
We focus on contests where the outcome could materially redirect public policy—and publish the evidence, assumptions, and uncertainty behind every number.
Active coverage
Each file has its own forecast, evidence ledger, update history, and permanent address.
Oregon · Governor
A Kotek–Drazan rematch after Kotek won a three-way 2022 race; without Betsy Johnson on the ballot, the central question is how that old coalition reassembles.
Tina Kotek +2.58 median margin
Why a race appears here
Coverage begins where governing stakes and measurable uncertainty meet. A race stays labeled as a research preview until its evidence and historical validation support more confidence.
The office can materially change budgets, appointments, vetoes, or the policy direction of a state.
Official results, reviewed polls, fundamentals, and campaign events can be dated, preserved, and challenged.
Every release carries its model version, input manifest, warnings, uncertainty, and an immutable run record.