{ "schema_version": "forecast-artifact.v1", "run": { "run_id": "2026-08-24T19-35-00-05-00__m0.2.0__de5dc7583ee47", "status": "research_preview", "generated_at": "2026-08-24T19:35:00-05:00", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-24T19:10:00-05:00", "election_date": "2026-11-03", "timezone": "America/Chicago", "days_to_election": 71, "model_version": "0.2.0", "methodology_version": "generic-polling-0.2", "data_version": "e5dc7583ee47", "simulation_count": 40000, "random_seed": 2026082401, "validation_state": "research_preview", "model_kind": "polling_only_research_preview" }, "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "david_crowley", "name": "David Crowley", "party": "Democratic", "role": "democratic_nominee", "is_aggregate": false }, { "candidate_id": "tom_tiffany", "name": "Tom Tiffany", "party": "Republican", "role": "republican_nominee", "is_aggregate": false }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Other candidates", "party": "Other", "role": "aggregate_remainder", "is_aggregate": true } ], "views": { "nowcast": { "label": "If voting ended today", "leader_candidate_id": "david_crowley", "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "david_crowley", "name": "David Crowley", "party": "Democratic", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.82395, "vote_share": { "median": 50.0365, "mean": 50.038, "interval_50": { "lower": 48.1515, "upper": 51.9195 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 46.5014, "upper": 53.5976 } } }, { "candidate_id": "tom_tiffany", "name": "Tom Tiffany", "party": "Republican", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.17605, "vote_share": { "median": 45.5683, "mean": 45.5791, "interval_50": { "lower": 43.7555, "upper": 47.3907 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 42.1279, "upper": 49.0712 } } }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Other candidates", "party": "Other", "is_aggregate": true, "win_probability": null, "win_probability_status": "not_modeled", "vote_share": { "median": 4.3076, "mean": 4.3829, "interval_50": { "lower": 2.4545, "upper": 6.1809 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.784, "upper": 7.8445 } } } ], "probability_scope": "conditional_on_one_of_the_two_modeled_major_candidates_winning", "major_candidate_margin": { "median": 4.4488, "mean": 4.4589, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.2583, "upper": 7.6927 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -1.7135, "upper": 10.6431 } }, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 4.6618, "mean": 4.6631, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.3179, "upper": 8.0207 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -1.7914, "upper": 11.1268 } }, "margin_convention": "Positive values indicate David Crowley leads; 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negative values indicate Tom Tiffany leads." } }, "components": { "polls": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 4.6618, "mean": 4.6631, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.3179, "upper": 8.0207 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -1.7914, "upper": 11.1268 } }, "accepted_count": 4, "distinct_pollsters": 3, "effective_poll_count": 2.8536 }, "historical_reference": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 1.2852, "mean": 1.2852, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.2852, "upper": 1.2852 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 1.2852, "upper": 1.2852 } }, "forecast_effect": 0 }, "combined": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 4.6297, "mean": 4.6617, "interval_50": { "lower": 0.877, "upper": 8.4325 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -2.9078, "upper": 12.3131 } }, "poll_influence": 1.0, "historical_reference_influence": 0.0, "historical_error_calibration": { "algorithm_version": "weighted-poll-baseline-0.1.0", "implementation_version": "production-poll-aggregation-backtest-0.3.0", "scope": "Out-of-time production-aggregator polling error by days before Election Day. This calibrates the polls-only baseline and does not validate the full fundamentals model.", "selected_horizon_days": 60, "selected_stratum": "robust_polling", "race_count": 21, "mae": 5.5537, "rmse": 6.2599, "error_sd": 6.3333, "central_80_error": [ -8.7387, 7.3942 ] }, "error_distribution": "student_t", "error_degrees_of_freedom": 7.0 }, "election_rule": { "rule": "plurality", "runoff_probability": 0.0, "treatment": "The named candidate with the most simulated votes wins the draw." } }, "bridge": [ { "stage_id": "previous_governor_result", "label": "Certified 2022 governor result", "description": "Tony Evers versus Tim Michels, shown only as a statewide historical comparison.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 3.4347, "mean": 3.4347, "interval_50": { "lower": 3.4347, "upper": 3.4347 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 3.4347, "upper": 3.4347 } }, "candidate_vote_shares": { "david_crowley": 51.149223, "tom_tiffany": 47.752297, "other_candidates": 1.09848 }, "source_ids": [ "wi_wec_2022_governor" ], "forecast_effect": 0, "is_model_estimate": false }, { "stage_id": "presidential_2024_result", "label": "Certified 2024 presidential result", "description": "Wisconsin's certified presidential vote, shown only as a recent statewide comparison.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -0.8643, "mean": -0.8643, "interval_50": { "lower": -0.8643, "upper": -0.8643 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -0.8643, "upper": -0.8643 } }, "candidate_vote_shares": { "david_crowley": 48.75, "tom_tiffany": 49.6, "other_candidates": 1.65 }, "source_ids": [ "fec_2024_president" ], "forecast_effect": 0, "is_model_estimate": false }, { "stage_id": "structural_2026", "label": "Historical reference midpoint", "description": "The midpoint of the certified governor and presidential two-party margins. It is a descriptive comparison with exactly zero separate forecast effect.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 1.2852, "mean": 1.2852, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.2852, "upper": 1.2852 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 1.2852, "upper": 1.2852 } }, "forecast_effect": 0, "is_model_estimate": false }, { "stage_id": "current_polls", "label": "Current polls", "description": "Quality-, recency-, sponsor-, and correlation-adjusted estimate from reviewed polls.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 4.6618, "mean": 4.6631, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.3179, "upper": 8.0207 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -1.7914, "upper": 11.1268 } }, "available": true, "is_model_estimate": true }, { "stage_id": "november_forecast", "label": "Election Day forecast", "description": "The current polling center with uncertainty set by the nearest out-of-time gubernatorial polling-error calibration; historical reference results add no points.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 4.6297, "mean": 4.6617, "interval_50": { "lower": 0.877, "upper": 8.4325 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -2.9078, "upper": 12.3131 } }, "is_model_estimate": true } ], "bridge_diagnostics": null, "polls": [ { "poll_id": "2026-08-18-tipp-crowley-tiffany", "pollster": "TIPP Insights", "sponsor": "League of American Workers", "partisan_sponsor": "R", "field_start": "2026-08-14", "field_end": "2026-08-18", "published_at": "2026-08-20T23:59:59.999999-05:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 1199, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Online panel", "raw": { "david_crowley": 47.0, "tom_tiffany": 43.0, "other": 4.0, "undecided": 6.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": true, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 4.444444, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 5.244444, "other_decided_share": 4.255319, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.8, "quality_multiplier": 0.286875, "recency_multiplier": 0.861973, "sampling_sd": 2.885101, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original release reviewed. 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Apply a Republican-aligned sponsor penalty and the registered-voter population multiplier; other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "wi_rmg_july_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.212895, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included under the generic polling-only research-preview rules." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-03-19-tipp-crowley-tiffany", "pollster": "TIPP Insights", "sponsor": "League of American Workers", "partisan_sponsor": "R", "field_start": "2026-03-13", "field_end": "2026-03-19", "published_at": "2026-03-24T23:59:59.999999-05:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 1175, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Online panel", "raw": { "david_crowley": 42.0, "tom_tiffany": 41.0, "other": 5.0, "undecided": 12.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": true, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 1.204819, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 2.004819, "other_decided_share": 5.681818, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.8, "quality_multiplier": 0.286875, "recency_multiplier": 0.020014, "sampling_sd": 2.917088, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Older poll from the same pollster and sponsor family as the August survey; recency and within-pollster correlation controls sharply reduce its weight.", "source_id": "wi_tipp_march_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.009683, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included under the generic polling-only research-preview rules." } } ], "poll_ledger": [ { "poll_id": "2026-08-18-tipp-crowley-tiffany", "pollster": "TIPP Insights", "sponsor": "League of American Workers", "partisan_sponsor": "R", "field_start": "2026-08-14", "field_end": "2026-08-18", "published_at": "2026-08-20T23:59:59.999999-05:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 1199, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Online panel", "raw": { "david_crowley": 47.0, "tom_tiffany": 43.0, "other": 4.0, "undecided": 6.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": true, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 4.444444, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 5.244444, "other_decided_share": 4.255319, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.8, "quality_multiplier": 0.286875, "recency_multiplier": 0.861973, "sampling_sd": 2.885101, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original release reviewed. 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The original questionnaire, full weighting targets, and candidate-order disclosure were not located; other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "wi_platform_august_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.3511, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-07-24-rmg-crowley-tiffany", "pollster": "RMG Research", "sponsor": "Institute for Reforming Government", "partisan_sponsor": "R", "field_start": "2026-07-20", "field_end": "2026-07-24", "published_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:59.999999-05:00", "population": "RV", "sample_size": 800, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Online panel", "raw": { "david_crowley": 46.0, "tom_tiffany": 43.0, "other": null, "undecided": 11.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 3.370787, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 4.170787, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.8, "quality_multiplier": 0.266011, "recency_multiplier": 0.464212, "sampling_sd": 3.533525, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original sponsor release reviewed. Apply a Republican-aligned sponsor penalty and the registered-voter population multiplier; other-candidate share was not separately reported.", "source_id": "wi_rmg_july_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.212895, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-03-19-tipp-crowley-tiffany", "pollster": "TIPP Insights", "sponsor": "League of American Workers", "partisan_sponsor": "R", "field_start": "2026-03-13", "field_end": "2026-03-19", "published_at": "2026-03-24T23:59:59.999999-05:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 1175, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Online panel", "raw": { "david_crowley": 42.0, "tom_tiffany": 41.0, "other": 5.0, "undecided": 12.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": true, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 1.204819, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 2.004819, "other_decided_share": 5.681818, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.8, "quality_multiplier": 0.286875, "recency_multiplier": 0.020014, "sampling_sd": 2.917088, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Older poll from the same pollster and sponsor family as the August survey; recency and within-pollster correlation controls sharply reduce its weight.", "source_id": "wi_tipp_march_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.009683, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } } ], "poll_exclusions": [], "poll_trend": [ { "date": "2026-03-19", "poll_id": "2026-03-19-tipp-crowley-tiffany", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 2.004819, "other_decided_share": 5.681818, "weight": 0.009683 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "poll_id": "2026-07-24-rmg-crowley-tiffany", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 4.170787, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "weight": 0.212895 }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "poll_id": "2026-08-13-platform-crowley-tiffany", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 4.347826, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "weight": 0.3511 }, { "date": "2026-08-18", "poll_id": "2026-08-18-tipp-crowley-tiffany", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": 5.244444, "other_decided_share": 4.255319, "weight": 0.426322 } ], "probability_history": [ { "date": "2026-08-24T19:35:00-05:00", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-24T19:10:00-05:00", "run_id": "2026-08-24T19-35-00-05-00__m0.2.0__de5dc7583ee47", "model_version": "0.2.0", "data_version": "e5dc7583ee47", "margin": 4.4174, "low": -2.7639, "high": 11.7766, "candidate_win_probabilities": { "david_crowley": 0.796, "tom_tiffany": 0.204 }, "margin_basis": "all_ballot_major_candidate_margin", "probability_scope": "conditional_on_one_of_the_two_modeled_major_candidates_winning" } ], "evidence_ledger": [ { "event_id": "wi_2026_primary_matchup_projected", "event_at": "2026-08-11", "published_at": "2026-08-12", "headline": "David Crowley and Tom Tiffany are projected to advance from the Wisconsin primary", "category": "candidate_field", "candidates": [ "david_crowley", "tom_tiffany" ], "mechanism": "candidate_field", "status": "projected_pending_canvass", "source_ids": [ "wi_primary_2026_ap", "wi_wec_canvass_process" ], "summary": "The major-party matchup is projected by news organizations; the statewide canvass remains pending at the release cutoff.", "model_treatment": { "type": "defined_input_update", "effect": "Use the projected major-party matchup with a visible pending-canvass warning and no margin adjustment." } }, { "event_id": "wi_2026_august_polling", "event_at": "2026-08-18", "published_at": "2026-08-20", "headline": "New Wisconsin polling keeps the governor race within a single-digit margin", "category": "qualifying_poll", "candidates": [ "david_crowley", "tom_tiffany" ], "mechanism": "polling_evidence", "status": "confirmed", "source_ids": [ "wi_tipp_august_2026", "wi_platform_august_2026" ], "summary": "Two August surveys show Crowley ahead, with sponsor and disclosure limitations reflected in poll weights.", "model_treatment": { "type": "poll_record", "effect": "Include through the documented poll-quality, sponsor, recency, and correlation controls." } } ], "context_signals": [], "context_assessments": { "schema_version": "context-assessments.v1", "race_id": "wisconsin-governor-2026", "status": "reviewed", "as_of": "2026-08-24", "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0, "assessment_count": 2, "assessments": [ { "id": "wi_state_control_stakes", "family": "state_control", "direction": "neutral", "target_candidate_id": null, "confidence": "high", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Wisconsin currently has a Democratic governor and Republican majorities in both legislative chambers; the Assembly and part of the Senate are also on the 2026 ballot.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "wi_legislature_control_2026" ], "current_signal_ids": [], "related_sample_ids": [] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "The governor election can preserve divided government or combine with legislative results to alter the veto and agenda-setting balance.", "interpretation": "The race matters for Wisconsin's governing trajectory even though the legislature is decided separately.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "A governor result alone does not determine a trifecta because every Assembly contest and the scheduled Senate contests remain separate elections.", "what_would_change_this": "Certified legislative candidate fields, district ratings, and chamber results would clarify the full control consequence." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0, "dependency_group": "wi_state_control_2026", "overlaps_model_component": [], "double_count_warning": "State-control stakes explain consequences and add zero points to either candidate's forecast.", "cadence": "on_control_change", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-24" }, { "id": "wi_canvass_pending", "family": "candidate_field", "direction": "neutral", "target_candidate_id": null, "confidence": "high", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "News organizations project David Crowley and Tom Tiffany as the primary winners, while Wisconsin's statewide canvass is due after this release cutoff.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "wi_primary_2026_ap", "wi_wec_canvass_process" ], "current_signal_ids": [], "related_sample_ids": [] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "The projected matchup is sufficient for a clearly labeled research preview but not a claim that the official canvass is complete.", "interpretation": "Candidate identity is treated as projected pending canvass.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "Certification could correct totals or, in an extraordinary case, the field; the page must retain its pending-canvass label.", "what_would_change_this": "The statewide canvass and certified general-election candidate list would replace the provisional status." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0, "dependency_group": "wi_candidate_field_2026", "overlaps_model_component": [], "double_count_warning": "Candidate-field status is a disclosure, not a forecast adjustment.", "cadence": "on_certification", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-24" } ] }, "accuracy": { "status": "research_preview", "probability_label": "polling-only research preview", "modeled_poll_count": 4, "distinct_pollsters": 3, "context_signal_count": 0, "context_signal_forecast_effect": 0, "context_assessment_count": 2, "context_assessment_forecast_effect": 0, "calibration_algorithm_version": "weighted-poll-baseline-0.1.0", "calibration_implementation_version": "production-poll-aggregation-backtest-0.3.0", "calibration_scope": "Out-of-time production-aggregator polling error by days before Election Day. This calibrates the polls-only baseline and does not validate the full fundamentals model.", "backtest_snapshots": [ { "days_before_election": 30, "series": "robust_polling", "race_count": 37, "mae": 5.5841, "rmse": 6.629, "error_sd": 6.7135, "central_80_error": [ -10.3472, 7.4356 ] }, { "days_before_election": 1, "series": "robust_polling", "race_count": 43, "mae": 4.793, "rmse": 5.9338, "error_sd": 5.9744, "central_80_error": [ -7.5576, 7.6031 ] } ], "layers": [ { "layer_id": "candidate_field", "label": "Major-party candidate field", "status": "projected_nominees_pending_canvass", "summary": "AP projects David Crowley and Tom Tiffany as the major-party nominees; Wisconsin's statewide primary canvass is due August 26." }, { "layer_id": "historical_reference", "label": "Certified historical reference", "status": "descriptive_only", "summary": "The prior governor and presidential results are displayed for context and add zero forecast points." }, { "layer_id": "poll_aggregation", "label": "Poll aggregation", "status": "historically_backtested", "summary": "Reviewed polls use the same recency, quality, sponsor, and pollster-correlation controls as the archived backtest." }, { "layer_id": "directional_context", "label": "Reviewed directional context", "status": "commentary_only", "summary": "2 reviewed assessments explain direction and caveats with exactly zero forecast effect." }, { "layer_id": "combined_probability", "label": "Polling-only win probability", "status": "end_to_end_backtest_pending", "summary": "The error layer is historically calibrated; the full race-specific publication remains a research preview." } ] }, "data_quality": { "grade": "C", "label": "preliminary", "score": 73, "poll_count": 4, "distinct_pollsters": 3, "fundamental_feature_count": 0, "candidate_field_status": "projected_nominees_pending_canvass", "warnings": [ { "code": "polling_only_research_preview", "severity": "warning", "message": "This expansion forecast is centered on reviewed polling. Certified historical results are descriptive reference points and have no separate forecast effect." }, { "code": "combined_model_backtest_pending", "severity": "warning", "message": "The polling-error layer is historically calibrated, but this race-specific publication has not completed an end-to-end out-of-sample validation cycle." }, { "code": "context_assessments_commentary_only", "severity": "info", "message": "2 reviewed context assessment(s) have exactly zero forecast effect." }, { "code": "wisconsin_primary_canvass_pending", "severity": "warning", "message": "The major-party winners are AP projections; the statewide primary canvass is due August 26." } ] }, "sources": [ { "source_id": "wi_primary_2026_ap", "title": "Wisconsin 2026 primary election results", "publisher": "Associated Press / NPR", "canonical_url": "https://apps.npr.org/primary-election-results-2026/states/WI.html", "source_type": "primary_results_report", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "wi_wec_canvass_process", "title": "Wisconsin election results process", "publisher": "Wisconsin Elections Commission", "canonical_url": "https://myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Election-Results-Process", "source_type": "official_election_process", "authority_tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "wi_tipp_august_2026", "title": "League of American Workers survey — Wisconsin", "publisher": "TIPP Insights", "canonical_url": "https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-wisconsin-4/", "source_type": "poll_release", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "wi_platform_august_2026", "title": "Badger Battleground poll shows a narrow governor race", "publisher": "WisPolitics", "canonical_url": "https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/badger-battleground-poll-new-badger-battleground-poll-shows-crowley-holds-narrow-early-lead-over-tiffany/", "source_type": "poll_report", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "wi_rmg_july_2026", "title": "Wisconsin statewide survey", "publisher": "Institute for Reforming Government / RMG Research", "canonical_url": "https://reforminggovernment.org/irg-poll-inflation-still-rules-free-markets-still-win-race-still-open/", "source_type": "poll_release", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "wi_tipp_march_2026", "title": "League of American Workers survey — Wisconsin", "publisher": "TIPP Insights", "canonical_url": "https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-wisconsin-3/", "source_type": "poll_release", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "wi_wec_2022_governor", "title": "Wisconsin certified election results", "publisher": "Wisconsin Elections Commission", "canonical_url": "https://elections.wi.gov/elections/election-results", "source_type": "certified_election_result", "authority_tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "fec_2024_president", "title": "Official 2024 presidential general election results", "publisher": "Federal Election Commission", "canonical_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5644/2024presgeresults.pdf", "source_type": "certified_election_result", "authority_tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "wi_legislature_control_2026", "title": "Primaries set up battle for control of Wisconsin Legislature", "publisher": "Wisconsin Public Radio", "canonical_url": "https://www.wpr.org/news/primaries-battle-control-wisconsin-legislature", "source_type": "state_control_report", "authority_tier": 2 } ], "movements": [], "net_change_label": null, "reproducibility": { "input_hashes": { "config": "fc1a5d659dcde9a1458741d1db84086cf50ad333577ff922331c3322327aaf17", "polls": "e1ebea8e705010afe7175f582405a02b4a8bdd16c4f37066fcf09da4696262ab", "sources": "c8789ad64cc60db2dcc271569ec0a9feb1e75b530b272979b62b3e5b59c81146", "context_assessments": "cc7431657ee2ebae1a666ddae91b35de8b064a2c8d216a15cb57a77a222a08ca", "events": "915379f8e570ba841129fd3025e7137ef0911878beb7194568070c48e6b517c2", "calibration": "dadb6e0053f3399a841ee3b6b5cccaee0868c875288d11530e324beb5acbb2c2" }, "source_manifest_sha256": "c8789ad64cc60db2dcc271569ec0a9feb1e75b530b272979b62b3e5b59c81146", "code_revision": "5c5e61b57d2b7343a52c1333c5fccfe361b969bd", "configuration": { "schema_version": "generic-governor-model.v1", "race_id": "wisconsin-governor-2026", "model_kind": "polling_only_research_preview", "model_version": "0.2.0", "methodology_version": "generic-polling-0.2", "candidate_field_status": "projected_nominees_pending_canvass", "candidate_field_summary": "AP projects David Crowley and Tom Tiffany as the major-party nominees; 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