{ "schema_version": "forecast-artifact.v1", "run": { "run_id": "2026-08-21T22-26-09.681935-07-00__m0.2.0__dae609dfa6b4c", "status": "research_preview", "generated_at": "2026-08-21T22:26:09.681935-07:00", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-21T22:26:09.681935-07:00", "election_date": "2026-11-03", "timezone": "America/Los_Angeles", "days_to_election": 74, "model_version": "0.2.0", "methodology_version": "0.2", "data_version": "ae609dfa6b4c", "simulation_count": 40000, "random_seed": 20260821, "validation_state": "research_preview" }, "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "name": "Tina Kotek", "party": "Democratic", "role": "kotek", "is_aggregate": false }, { "candidate_id": "christine_drazan", "name": "Christine Drazan", "party": "Republican", "role": "drazan", "is_aggregate": false }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Other candidates", "party": "Other", "role": "minor", "is_aggregate": true } ], "views": { "nowcast": { "label": "If voting ended today", "leader_candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "name": "Tina Kotek", "party": "Democratic", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.665275, "vote_share": { "median": 50.3098, "mean": 50.303, "interval_50": { "lower": 48.1232, "upper": 52.4551 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 46.1009, "upper": 54.509 } } }, { "candidate_id": "christine_drazan", "name": "Christine Drazan", "party": "Republican", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.334725, "vote_share": { "median": 47.5851, "mean": 47.5974, "interval_50": { "lower": 45.4573, "upper": 49.7703 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 43.3677, "upper": 51.8174 } } }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Other candidates", "party": "Other", "is_aggregate": true, "win_probability": 0.0, "vote_share": { "median": 2.0795, "mean": 2.0996, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.4689, "upper": 2.6942 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.9634, "upper": 3.2532 } } } ], "major_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.7205, "mean": 2.7056, "interval_50": { "lower": -1.574, "upper": 6.9635 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -5.6287, "upper": 11.0212 } }, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.7794, "mean": 2.7638, "interval_50": { "lower": -1.6119, "upper": 7.1066 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -5.7405, "upper": 11.2741 } }, "margin_convention": "Positive values indicate a Kotek lead; negative values indicate a Drazan lead." }, "election_forecast": { "label": "Election-day forecast", "leader_candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "name": "Tina Kotek", "party": "Democratic", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.64655, "vote_share": { "median": 50.2069, "mean": 50.2408, "interval_50": { "lower": 47.8209, "upper": 52.6556 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 45.5928, "upper": 54.9321 } } }, { "candidate_id": "christine_drazan", "name": "Christine Drazan", "party": "Republican", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.35345, "vote_share": { "median": 47.6174, "mean": 47.6066, "interval_50": { "lower": 45.2406, "upper": 50.0064 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 42.9252, "upper": 52.2616 } } }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Other candidates", "party": "Other", "is_aggregate": true, "win_probability": 0.0, "vote_share": { "median": 2.088, "mean": 2.1527, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.3446, "upper": 2.8876 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.7632, "upper": 3.5912 } } } ], "major_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.5813, "mean": 2.6342, "interval_50": { "lower": -2.111, "upper": 7.3671 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -6.5862, "upper": 11.9104 } }, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.6427, "mean": 2.6915, "interval_50": { "lower": -2.1539, "upper": 7.5269 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -6.7394, "upper": 12.1787 } }, "margin_convention": "Positive values indicate a Kotek lead; negative values indicate a Drazan lead." } }, "components": { "polls": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -3.5994, "mean": -3.5926, "interval_50": { "lower": -14.505, "upper": 7.4415 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -24.4541, "upper": 17.1868 } }, "other_vote_share": { "median": 6.254, "mean": 7.0165, "interval_50": { "lower": 3.1158, "upper": 10.2178 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 1.2906, "upper": 13.941 } }, "candidate_vote_shares": [ { "candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "vote_share": { "median": 44.7414, "mean": 44.8176, "interval_50": { "lower": 39.4707, "upper": 50.0802 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 34.7247, "upper": 54.9658 } } }, { "candidate_id": "christine_drazan", "vote_share": { "median": 48.1128, "mean": 48.1659, "interval_50": { "lower": 42.727, "upper": 53.4638 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 38.0399, "upper": 58.4591 } } }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "vote_share": { "median": 6.254, "mean": 7.0165, "interval_50": { "lower": 3.1158, "upper": 10.2178 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 1.2906, "upper": 13.941 } } } ], "accepted_count": 1, "distinct_pollsters": 1, "effective_poll_count": 1.0 }, "fundamentals": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 3.1047, "mean": 3.0978, "interval_50": { "lower": 0.5572, "upper": 5.6725 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -1.7177, "upper": 7.8862 } }, "other_vote_share": { "median": 2.029, "mean": 2.0643, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.3856, "upper": 2.7036 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.8565, "upper": 3.2952 } }, "candidate_vote_shares": [ { "candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "vote_share": { "median": 50.4834, "mean": 50.4848, "interval_50": { "lower": 49.2095, "upper": 51.7712 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 48.0404, "upper": 52.9306 } } }, { "candidate_id": "christine_drazan", "vote_share": { "median": 47.4338, "mean": 47.4509, "interval_50": { "lower": 46.1548, "upper": 48.7468 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 45.0393, "upper": 49.8862 } } }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "vote_share": { "median": 2.029, "mean": 2.0643, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.3856, "upper": 2.7036 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.8565, "upper": 3.2952 } } } ], "applied_features": [], "inactive_features": [] }, "combined": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.6427, "mean": 2.6915, "interval_50": { "lower": -2.1539, "upper": 7.5269 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -6.7394, "upper": 12.1787 } }, "other_vote_share": { "median": 2.088, "mean": 2.1527, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.3446, "upper": 2.8876 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.7632, "upper": 3.5912 } }, "candidate_vote_shares": [ { "candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "vote_share": { "median": 50.2069, "mean": 50.2408, "interval_50": { "lower": 47.8209, "upper": 52.6556 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 45.5928, "upper": 54.9321 } } }, { "candidate_id": "christine_drazan", "vote_share": { "median": 47.6174, "mean": 47.6066, "interval_50": { "lower": 45.2406, "upper": 50.0064 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 42.9252, "upper": 52.2616 } } }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "vote_share": { "median": 2.088, "mean": 2.1527, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.3446, "upper": 2.8876 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.7632, "upper": 3.5912 } } } ], "poll_influence": 0.050664, "future_movement_sd": 3.381587, "historical_error_calibration": { "available": true, "source": "data/calibration/gubernatorial_poll_error.json", "algorithm_version": "weighted-poll-baseline-0.1.0", "implementation_version": "production-poll-aggregation-backtest-0.2.0", "series": "robust_polling", "election_day_horizon": 1, "future_movement_horizon_days": 30, "election_day_error_sd": 5.8825, "horizon_total_error_sd": 6.7852, "future_movement_max_sd": 3.381587, "election_day_race_count": 43, "future_horizon_race_count": 37, "fallback_used": false, "scope_note": "Out-of-time production-aggregator polling error by days before Election Day. This calibrates the polls-only baseline and does not validate the full fundamentals model." }, "error_distribution": "student_t", "error_degrees_of_freedom": 7 } }, "bridge": [ { "stage_id": "actual_2022", "label": "2022 certified result", "description": "Kotek won the certified full ballot by 3.42 points; the bridge position is the corresponding 3.78-point normalized Kotek–Drazan margin.", "all_candidate_margin": 3.4168, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 3.7754, "mean": 3.7754, "interval_50": { "lower": 3.7754, "upper": 3.7754 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 3.7754, "upper": 3.7754 } }, "candidate_vote_shares": { "betsy_johnson": 8.624736, "christine_drazan": 43.543162, "donice_smith": 0.412262, "r_leon_noble": 0.351634, "tina_kotek": 46.960007, "write_ins": 0.108199 }, "candidate_names": { "tina_kotek": "Tina Kotek", "christine_drazan": "Christine Drazan", "betsy_johnson": "Betsy Johnson", "donice_smith": "Donice Noelle Smith", "r_leon_noble": "R. Leon Noble", "write_ins": "Write-ins / miscellaneous" }, "source_ids": [ "or_sos_2022_general_abstract" ], "is_model_estimate": false }, { "stage_id": "no_johnson_2022", "label": "2022 without Johnson", "description": "Counterfactual redistribution using a broad transfer prior informed by two indirect 2022 proxies and a separate Johnson-to-major rate. Production does not separately estimate 2022 Kotek/Drazan retention or crossover.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 3.1285, "mean": 3.1151, "interval_50": { "lower": 1.2211, "upper": 5.0282 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -0.5004, "upper": 6.7213 } }, "is_model_estimate": true }, { "stage_id": "structural_2026", "label": "2026 structural prior", "description": "The rematch counterfactual updated for measured electorate and fundamentals effects.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 3.1047, "mean": 3.0978, "interval_50": { "lower": 0.5572, "upper": 5.6725 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -1.7177, "upper": 7.8862 } }, "subcomponents": { "electorate_shift": { "median": -0.0074, "mean": -0.0106, "interval_50": { "lower": -1.0253, "upper": 0.9891 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -1.9219, "upper": 1.8974 } }, "fundamental_adjustment": { "median": -0.0161, "mean": -0.0066, "interval_50": { "lower": -1.3718, "upper": 1.3565 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -2.5755, "upper": 2.5834 } } }, "is_model_estimate": true }, { "stage_id": "current_polls", "label": "Current polls", "description": "Quality-, recency-, and correlation-adjusted estimate from reviewed polls.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -3.5994, "mean": -3.5926, "interval_50": { "lower": -14.505, "upper": 7.4415 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -24.4541, "upper": 17.1868 } }, "available": true, "is_model_estimate": true }, { "stage_id": "november_forecast", "label": "November forecast", "description": "Combined structural and polling estimate with remaining movement and election-day error.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": 2.6427, "mean": 2.6915, "interval_50": { "lower": -2.1539, "upper": 7.5269 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -6.7394, "upper": 12.1787 } }, "is_model_estimate": true } ], "bridge_diagnostics": { "schema_version": "bridge-analysis.v1", "algorithm_version": "county-transition-accounting.v1", "status": "diagnostic_only_not_forecast_input", "forecast_integration": "public_diagnostic_only", "identification_status": "individual_johnson_second_choice_not_directly_observed", "current_model_prior": { "johnson_to_kotek_mean": 0.48, "johnson_to_kotek_sd": 0.16, "johnson_to_kotek_min": 0.05, "johnson_to_kotek_max": 0.85, "johnson_to_major_rate_mean": 0.9, "johnson_to_major_rate_sd": 0.08, "johnson_to_major_rate_min": 0.55, "johnson_to_major_rate_max": 1.0, "johnson_to_major_rate_evidence_status": "unvalidated_judgmental_assumption", "johnson_to_major_rate_basis": "A judgmental participation assumption used to allow some 2022 Johnson-origin voters to choose neither major candidate in 2026. The available AP VoteCast and Clout evidence informs only the conditional Kotek-versus-Drazan destination proxy, not this participation rate.", "evidence_status": "indirect_proxy_evidence_not_second_choice", "basis": "A judgmental, deliberately broad approximation informed by AP VoteCast relative-favorability comparisons among 2022 Johnson voters and Clout Research's same-sample aggregate forced-choice ballot. Neither source directly identifies Johnson voters' second choices.", "source_ids": [ "ap_votecast_2022_public_use", "clout_2022_sep_forced_choice" ] }, "transfer_evidence": { "schema_version": "johnson-transfer-evidence.v1", "analysis_as_of": "2026-08-21", "status": "indirect_evidence_only_not_directly_identified", "estimand": "Among people who chose Betsy Johnson for Oregon governor in 2022 and who would choose either Tina Kotek or Christine Drazan in a counterfactual two-candidate contest, the share who would choose Kotek.", "direct_second_choice_observed": false, "records": [ { "evidence_id": "ap_votecast_2022_johnson_favorability_proxy", "label": "AP VoteCast individual-level favorability proxy", "source_ids": [ "ap_votecast_2022_public_use" ], "respondent_count": 225, "kotek_proxy_share_low": 0.490331, "kotek_proxy_share_high": 0.536883, "metric": "Tie-split relative-favorability proxy across poll-close and final-vote weights", "caveat": "Favorability is not vote choice; weighting choice, ties, proxy error, and the small effective sample dominate precision." }, { "evidence_id": "clout_2022_same_sample_aggregate_forced_choice", "label": "Clout same-sample aggregate forced choice", "source_ids": [ "clout_2022_sep_forced_choice" ], "respondent_count": 422, "kotek_proxy_share_low": 0.102941, "kotek_proxy_share_high": 0.735294, "conditional_point_under_exchangeability": 0.45045, "metric": "Johnson-specific identified range under no major-candidate switching", "caveat": "The Johnson split is not published; even the wide range requires a strong no-major-switch assumption, and the point allocation adds exchangeability." } ], "production_prior": { "distribution": "truncated_normal", "mean": 0.48, "sd": 0.16, "minimum": 0.05, "maximum": 0.85, "evidence_status": "judgmental_prior_informed_by_indirect_proxy_evidence", "basis": "AP VoteCast favorability comparisons center near an even split but range from 0.490 under poll-close weighting to 0.537 under final-vote weighting when equal valid ratings are split. Clout's nonidentified same-sample aggregate implies 0.450 only under an additional exchangeability assumption. The 0.48 center gives modest weight to that Drazan-leaning aggregate constraint, while the 0.16 standard deviation and truncation preserve substantial uncertainty for proxy error, unpublished transitions, weighting sensitivity, and 2022-to-2026 behavioral change.", "source_ids": [ "ap_votecast_2022_public_use", "clout_2022_sep_forced_choice" ] }, "guardrail": "Do not describe the production prior or either evidence record as an observed Johnson-voter transfer rate." }, "observed_2022": { "certified_kotek_minus_drazan_two_candidate_margin": 3.775388, "top_five_counties_share_of_johnson_vote": 55.06231 }, "named_scenarios": [ { "scenario_id": "equal_johnson_split_anchor", "label": "Equal Johnson split anchor", "evidence_status": "unobserved_arithmetic_anchor", "probability_weight": null, "synthetic_two_candidate_margin": 3.446906, "synthetic_major_winner": "tina_kotek" }, { "scenario_id": "drazan_transfer_stress", "label": "Drazan-leaning Johnson transfer stress", "evidence_status": "unobserved_stress_test", "probability_weight": null, "synthetic_two_candidate_margin": -1.202903, "synthetic_major_winner": "christine_drazan" }, { "scenario_id": "kotek_transfer_stress", "label": "Kotek-leaning Johnson transfer stress", "evidence_status": "unobserved_stress_test", "probability_weight": null, "synthetic_two_candidate_margin": 7.97252, "synthetic_major_winner": "tina_kotek" }, { "scenario_id": "drazan_relative_retention_stress", "label": "Drazan relative-retention stress", "evidence_status": "unobserved_compound_stress_test", "probability_weight": null, "synthetic_two_candidate_margin": -2.844134, "synthetic_major_winner": "christine_drazan" }, { "scenario_id": "kotek_relative_retention_stress", "label": "Kotek relative-retention stress", "evidence_status": "unobserved_compound_stress_test", "probability_weight": null, "synthetic_two_candidate_margin": 9.611775, "synthetic_major_winner": "tina_kotek" } ], "unweighted_margin_envelope": { "lower": -5.325423, "upper": 12.100601, "grid_cell_count": 420, "probability_interval": false }, "ecological_inference_warning": "County aggregates do not identify any individual Johnson, Kotek, Drazan, minor-party, or write-in voter's 2026 destination.", "reason_no_probability": "No locally available evidence identifies defensible probability weights for the transfer and retention assumptions." }, "polls": [ { "poll_id": "2026-06-24-pos-kotek-drazan", "pollster": "Public Opinion Strategies", "sponsor": "Christine Drazan for Oregon", "partisan_sponsor": "R", "field_start": "2026-06-22", "field_end": "2026-06-24", "published_at": "2026-07-10T23:59:59.999999-07:00", "population": "RV", "sample_size": 600, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Telephone", "raw": { "kotek": 44.0, "drazan": 48.0, "other": 2.0, "undecided": 6.0 }, "raw_two_candidate_margin": -4.347826, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -3.547826, "other_decided_share": 2.12766, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.8, "quality_multiplier": 0.272531, "recency_multiplier": 0.237924, "sampling_sd": 4.078622, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Campaign internal poll; apply partisan-sponsor penalty and correlated-error inflation. Original six-page topline verified. Frame, weighting, and voter-screen details are not disclosed. The published summary places 6% in lean/undecided and the remaining 2% in third-party/other or refusal; other therefore preserves that combined remainder.", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "question_text": "If the election for Governor were being held TODAY, for whom would you vote between... (ROTATE) Christine Drazan, Republican … and… Tina Kotek, Democrat?", "normalized_weight": 1.0 } ], "poll_ledger": [ { "poll_id": "2026-06-24-pos-kotek-drazan", "pollster": "Public Opinion Strategies", "sponsor": "Christine Drazan for Oregon", "partisan_sponsor": "R", "field_start": "2026-06-22", "field_end": "2026-06-24", "published_at": "2026-07-10T23:59:59.999999-07:00", "population": "RV", "sample_size": 600, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Telephone", "raw": { "kotek": 44.0, "drazan": 48.0, "other": 2.0, "undecided": 6.0 }, "raw_two_candidate_margin": -4.347826, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -3.547826, "other_decided_share": 2.12766, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.8, "quality_multiplier": 0.272531, "recency_multiplier": 0.237924, "sampling_sd": 4.078622, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Campaign internal poll; apply partisan-sponsor penalty and correlated-error inflation. Original six-page topline verified. Frame, weighting, and voter-screen details are not disclosed. The published summary places 6% in lean/undecided and the remaining 2% in third-party/other or refusal; other therefore preserves that combined remainder.", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "question_text": "If the election for Governor were being held TODAY, for whom would you vote between... (ROTATE) Christine Drazan, Republican … and… Tina Kotek, Democrat?", "normalized_weight": 1.0, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-02-04-fm3-kotek-drazan", "pollster": "FM3 Research", "sponsor": "Undisclosed", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-28", "field_end": "2026-02-04", "published_at": "2026-02-13", "population": "LV", "sample_size": null, "sample_size_disclosed": false, "mode": "Mixed telephone and online/text", "raw": { "kotek": 45.0, "drazan": 40.0, "other": 12.0, "undecided": 3.0 }, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 5.882353, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original questionnaire/topline verified. The release reports 1,065 likely voters overall but uses an A/B/C split; exact n for the Kotek–Drazan ballot test is not disclosed, so sample_size is intentionally blank. Sponsor, sample frame, weighting, and likely-voter screen are not disclosed. Pollster attribution is corroborated by contemporaneous reporting but is not printed in the PDF.", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "question_text": "Next, it’s a long way off, but if the election for Oregon Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: (ROTATE) Tina Kotek, a Democrat; and Christine Drazan, a Republican? (IF UNDECIDED, ASK: Toward whom would you lean?)", "model_use": { "included": false, "reason": "older than 180 days" } } ], "poll_exclusions": [ { "poll_id": "2026-02-04-fm3-kotek-drazan", "reason": "older than 180 days" } ], "poll_trend": [ { "date": "2026-06-24", "poll_id": "2026-06-24-pos-kotek-drazan", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -3.547826, "other_decided_share": 2.12766, "weight": 1.0 } ], "probability_history": [ { "date": "2026-08-21T12:57:28.119941-07:00", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-21T12:57:28.119941-07:00", "run_id": "2026-08-21T12-57-28.119941-07-00__m0.1.0__d8d6cb9762618", "model_version": "0.1.0", "data_version": "8d6cb9762618", "margin": 0.8454, "low": -8.5055, "high": 10.1936, "candidate_win_probabilities": { "tina_kotek": 0.547625, "christine_drazan": 0.452375 }, "kotek_win_probability": 0.547625, "drazan_win_probability": 0.452375 }, { "date": "2026-08-21T14:55:17.354672-07:00", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-21T14:55:17.354672-07:00", "run_id": "2026-08-21T14-55-17.354672-07-00__m0.2.0__d4313959f5c2f", "model_version": "0.2.0", "data_version": "4313959f5c2f", "margin": 2.5813, "low": -6.5862, "high": 11.9104, "candidate_win_probabilities": { "tina_kotek": 0.64655, "christine_drazan": 0.35345 }, "kotek_win_probability": 0.64655, "drazan_win_probability": 0.35345 }, { "date": "2026-08-21T22:26:09.681935-07:00", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-21T22:26:09.681935-07:00", "run_id": "2026-08-21T22-26-09.681935-07-00__m0.2.0__dae609dfa6b4c", "model_version": "0.2.0", "data_version": "ae609dfa6b4c", "margin": 2.5813, "low": -6.5862, "high": 11.9104, "candidate_win_probabilities": { "tina_kotek": 0.64655, "christine_drazan": 0.35345 }, "kotek_win_probability": 0.64655, "drazan_win_probability": 0.35345 } ], "evidence_ledger": [ { "event_id": "2026-libertarian-cross-nomination-drazan-reported", "event_at": "2026-07-25", "published_at": "2026-08-07", "headline": "Christine Drazan reportedly receives the Libertarian cross-nomination", "category": "candidate_field", "candidates": [ "christine_drazan" ], "mechanism": "ballot_label_and_coalition_signal", "status": "reported_not_certified", "source_ids": [ "lpo_2026_convention_notice", "kepw_2026_brett_smith_interview" ], "summary": "The Libertarian Party confirms that its convention occurred on July 25, while Pacific Green candidate Brett Smith later gave a first-person account that delegates nominated Drazan. No official LPO outcome release or certified state ballot record was located as of August 21.", "model_treatment": { "type": "monitor_only", "effect": "No model input change until an official party outcome or Oregon certified ballot record confirms the cross-nomination." }, "intervention": null }, { "event_id": "2026-pacific-green-nomination-smith", "event_at": "2026-07-23", "published_at": "2026-07-23", "headline": "Brett Smith is slated for the ballot as the Pacific Green nominee", "category": "candidate_field", "candidates": [ "brett_smith", "tina_kotek", "christine_drazan" ], "mechanism": "minor_party_vote", "status": "provisional", "source_ids": [ "pacific_green_2026_nominations", "opb_2026_third_party_field" ], "summary": "The Pacific Green Party identifies Smith as its nominee, and OPB reported him as the lone minor-party candidate then headed to the ballot. Oregon's minor-party field was still open, so this is not treated as the final certified ballot.", "model_treatment": { "type": "monitor_only", "effect": "Track Smith in the provisional field while minor-party support remains aggregated as Other; do not assign a direct margin adjustment before certified ballot confirmation and measurable support." }, "intervention": null }, { "event_id": "2026-pos-internal-poll-release", "event_at": "2026-06-24", "published_at": "2026-07-10", "headline": "Drazan campaign releases Public Opinion Strategies topline showing Drazan 48%, Kotek 44%", "category": "qualifying_poll", "candidates": [ "christine_drazan", "tina_kotek" ], "mechanism": "polling_evidence", "status": "confirmed", "source_ids": [ "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "opb_2026_race_competitive" ], "summary": "The internal telephone survey interviewed 600 Oregon voters June 22–24. Its original topline is public, but sample-frame and weighting disclosures are incomplete and the campaign sponsored the poll.", "model_treatment": { "type": "poll_record", "poll_id": "2026-06-24-pos-kotek-drazan", "effect": "Accepted with a partisan-sponsor penalty and wider uncertainty; no separate news adjustment." }, "intervention": null }, { "event_id": "2026-republican-nomination-drazan", "event_at": "2026-05-19", "published_at": "2026-05-19", "headline": "Christine Drazan wins the Republican nomination, setting up a Kotek rematch", "category": "candidate_field", "candidates": [ "christine_drazan", "tina_kotek" ], "mechanism": "candidate_viability", "status": "confirmed", "source_ids": [ "opb_2026_drazan_primary" ], "summary": "Drazan emerged from the Republican primary as the party nominee; Kotek had also won renomination, establishing the principal 2026 matchup.", "model_treatment": { "type": "defined_input_update", "input": "major_candidate_field", "effect": "Set Christine Drazan as the Republican nominee; no discretionary margin adjustment." }, "intervention": null } ], "context_signals": [ { "signal_id": "kotek-campaign-expenditures-2026-08-21", "series_id": "kotek_campaign_expenditures", "category": "campaign_resources", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "released_at": "2026-08-21T22:05:00-07:00", "value": 1416805.34, "unit": "US dollars", "source_id": "oregon_money_watch_governor_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Provisional daily aggregation sourced from Oregon Secretary of State data; spending is capacity and campaign activity, not vote intention.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "kotek-campaign-contributions-2026-08-21", "series_id": "kotek_campaign_contributions", "category": "campaign_resources", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "released_at": "2026-08-21T22:05:00-07:00", "value": 7547297.24, "unit": "US dollars", "source_id": "oregon_money_watch_governor_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Provisional daily aggregation sourced from Oregon Secretary of State data; one of six linked campaign-resource measures and not an independent electoral effect.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "kotek-campaign-cash-2026-08-21", "series_id": "kotek_campaign_cash_on_hand", "category": "campaign_resources", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "released_at": "2026-08-21T22:05:00-07:00", "value": 8567628.18, "unit": "US dollars", "source_id": "oregon_money_watch_governor_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Provisional daily aggregation sourced from Oregon Secretary of State data; committee definitions and independent spending still require separate review.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "drazan-campaign-expenditures-2026-08-21", "series_id": "drazan_campaign_expenditures", "category": "campaign_resources", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "released_at": "2026-08-21T22:05:00-07:00", "value": 3879719.19, "unit": "US dollars", "source_id": "oregon_money_watch_governor_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Provisional daily aggregation sourced from Oregon Secretary of State data; spending is capacity and campaign activity, not vote intention.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "drazan-campaign-contributions-2026-08-21", "series_id": "drazan_campaign_contributions", "category": "campaign_resources", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "released_at": "2026-08-21T22:05:00-07:00", "value": 5741164.03, "unit": "US dollars", "source_id": "oregon_money_watch_governor_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Provisional daily aggregation sourced from Oregon Secretary of State data; one of six linked campaign-resource measures and not an independent electoral effect.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "drazan-campaign-cash-2026-08-21", "series_id": "drazan_campaign_cash_on_hand", "category": "campaign_resources", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "released_at": "2026-08-21T22:05:00-07:00", "value": 2842377.56, "unit": "US dollars", "source_id": "oregon_money_watch_governor_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Provisional daily aggregation sourced from Oregon Secretary of State data; committee definitions and independent spending still require separate review.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "us-unemployment-sa-2026-07", "series_id": "us_unemployment_rate_sa", "category": "economy", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "released_at": "2026-08-19T10:00:00-07:00", "value": 4.1, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "or_oed_july_2026_employment", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Published alongside the Oregon series and retained to calculate a relative state-national condition only after calibration.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-unemployment-sa-2026-07", "series_id": "oregon_unemployment_rate_sa", "category": "economy", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "released_at": "2026-08-19T10:00:00-07:00", "value": 5.2, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "or_oed_july_2026_employment", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Official seasonally adjusted Oregon series; revisions are preserved as new vintages.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-payroll-change-2026-07", "series_id": "oregon_nonfarm_payroll_monthly_change_sa", "category": "economy", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "released_at": "2026-08-19T10:00:00-07:00", "value": -4100.0, "unit": "jobs", "source_id": "or_oed_july_2026_employment", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "One-month change is preliminary and receives no direct vote-margin effect.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "us-trump-disapproval-rv-reuters-2026-08", "series_id": "trump_disapproval_registered_voters", "category": "national_environment", "as_of": "2026-08-17", "released_at": "2026-08-17T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 65.0, "unit": "percent disapprove", "source_id": "reuters_ipsos_august_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "reuters_ipsos_2026_08", "notes": "National registered-voter result from the same probability-panel sample; national environment is directional context only.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "us-trump-approval-rv-reuters-2026-08", "series_id": "trump_approval_registered_voters", "category": "national_environment", "as_of": "2026-08-17", "released_at": "2026-08-17T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 35.0, "unit": "percent approve", "source_id": "reuters_ipsos_august_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "reuters_ipsos_2026_08", "notes": "National registered-voter result from the same probability-panel sample as the disapproval and generic-ballot rows; it is not Oregon opinion.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "us-generic-ballot-rep-rv-reuters-2026-08", "series_id": "congressional_generic_ballot_rep_registered_voters", "category": "national_environment", "as_of": "2026-08-17", "released_at": "2026-08-17T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 36.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "reuters_ipsos_august_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "reuters_ipsos_2026_08", "notes": "National registered-voter congressional preference from the same Reuters/Ipsos sample; paired with the Democratic row and not an Oregon ballot estimate.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "us-generic-ballot-dem-rv-reuters-2026-08", "series_id": "congressional_generic_ballot_dem_registered_voters", "category": "national_environment", "as_of": "2026-08-17", "released_at": "2026-08-17T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 41.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "reuters_ipsos_august_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "reuters_ipsos_2026_08", "notes": "National registered-voter congressional preference from the same Reuters/Ipsos sample; paired with the Republican row and not an Oregon ballot estimate.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-registration-total-2026-08", "series_id": "registered_voters_total", "category": "registration", "as_of": "2026-08-04", "released_at": "2026-08-04T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 3076893.0, "unit": "registered voters", "source_id": "or_sos_registration_august_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Official statewide total; monitored for electorate composition and not treated as vote intention.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-registration-rep-2026-08", "series_id": "registered_voters_republican", "category": "registration", "as_of": "2026-08-04", "released_at": "2026-08-04T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 734821.0, "unit": "registered voters", "source_id": "or_sos_registration_august_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Party registration is descriptive and receives no forecast coefficient until a historical out-of-sample test passes.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-registration-nav-2026-08", "series_id": "registered_voters_nonaffiliated", "category": "registration", "as_of": "2026-08-04", "released_at": "2026-08-04T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 1142360.0, "unit": "registered voters", "source_id": "or_sos_registration_august_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Nonaffiliated registration is not an estimate of independent-candidate support or candidate preference.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-registration-dem-2026-08", "series_id": "registered_voters_democratic", "category": "registration", "as_of": "2026-08-04", "released_at": "2026-08-04T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 980829.0, "unit": "registered voters", "source_id": "or_sos_registration_august_2026", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Party registration is descriptive and receives no forecast coefficient until a historical out-of-sample test passes.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-wrong-track-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "oregon_wrong_track", "category": "state_mood", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 59.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Paired with right direction in the same campaign-sponsored sample; not independent evidence.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-top-issue-taxes-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "most_important_issue_taxes", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 12.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Randomized single-choice issue question from the same POS sample; grouped with the other issue responses.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-top-issue-jobs-economy-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "most_important_issue_jobs_and_economy", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 11.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Randomized single-choice issue question from the same POS sample; grouped with the other issue responses.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-top-issue-housing-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "most_important_issue_affordable_housing", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 15.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Randomized single-choice issue question from the same POS sample; grouped with the other issue responses.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-top-issue-homelessness-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "most_important_issue_homelessness", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 16.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Randomized single-choice issue question from the same POS sample; grouped with the other issue responses.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-top-issue-cost-living-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "most_important_issue_cost_of_living", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 22.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Randomized single-choice issue question; one of five leading responses from the same POS sample and not a vote-direction measure.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-right-direction-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "oregon_right_direction", "category": "state_mood", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 34.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Campaign-sponsored 600-voter sample; all POS mood, approval, favorability, issue, interest, and ballot rows are one dependent evidence family.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-election-interest-high-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "november_election_interest_8_to_10", "category": "electorate_engagement", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 76.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Share rating interest from eight through ten on a ten-point scale in the campaign-sponsored sample; interest is not turnout.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-desire-change-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "oregon_next_governor_great_or_quite_a_bit_change", "category": "state_mood", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 66.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Respondents wanting a great deal or quite a bit of change in how the next governor leads; wording does not identify which candidate they prefer.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "kotek-unfavorability-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "kotek_unfavorability", "category": "candidate_image", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 56.0, "unit": "percent unfavorable", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Same campaign-sponsored sample as the paired favorability and ballot measures; not independent evidence.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "kotek-favorability-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "kotek_favorability", "category": "candidate_image", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 37.0, "unit": "percent favorable", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Same campaign-sponsored sample as the ballot test and Kotek approval; favorability is correlated evidence.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "kotek-disapproval-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "kotek_disapproval", "category": "approval", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 57.0, "unit": "percent disapprove", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Same 600-person campaign-sponsored sample as the modeled ballot test; it cannot be counted as independent evidence.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "kotek-approval-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "kotek_approval", "category": "approval", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 38.0, "unit": "percent approve", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Same 600-person campaign-sponsored sample as the modeled ballot test; it cannot be counted as independent evidence.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "drazan-unfavorability-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "drazan_unfavorability", "category": "candidate_image", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 26.0, "unit": "percent unfavorable", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Same campaign-sponsored sample and paired with Drazan favorability; not independent evidence.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "drazan-favorability-pos-2026-06", "series_id": "drazan_favorability", "category": "candidate_image", "as_of": "2026-06-24", "released_at": "2026-07-10T12:00:00-07:00", "value": 33.0, "unit": "percent favorable", "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "pos_2026_06", "notes": "Same campaign-sponsored sample; 20 percent had heard of Drazan but had no opinion and 21 percent had never heard of her.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-primary-turnout-2026", "series_id": "primary_turnout_rate", "category": "turnout", "as_of": "2026-05-19", "released_at": "2026-06-25T09:00:00-07:00", "value": 41.87, "unit": "percent of registered voters", "source_id": "or_sos_2026_primary_certification", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Certified statewide primary turnout; it is not converted into a general-election partisan adjustment.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "us-gdp-yoy-2025-q4", "series_id": "us_real_gdp_yoy", "category": "economy", "as_of": "2025-12-31", "released_at": "2026-05-20T09:00:00-07:00", "value": 2.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "or_oea_q2_2026_forecast", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "National comparison printed in the same Oregon forecast release.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-gdp-yoy-2025-q4", "series_id": "oregon_real_gdp_yoy", "category": "economy", "as_of": "2025-12-31", "released_at": "2026-05-20T09:00:00-07:00", "value": 0.6, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "or_oea_q2_2026_forecast", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Release-vintage state growth measure from the June economic forecast.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-wrong-track-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "oregon_wrong_track", "category": "state_mood", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 58.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Paired with the right-direction measure from the same undisclosed-sponsor survey; not independent evidence.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-wildfire-serious-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "wildfire_extremely_or_very_serious", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 63.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Neutral pre-message randomized issue battery; grouped with all FM3 issue-severity rows and not mapped to a candidate.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-substance-use-serious-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "substance_use_addiction_extremely_or_very_serious", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 81.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Neutral pre-message randomized issue battery; grouped with all FM3 issue-severity rows and not mapped to a candidate.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-state-taxes-serious-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "state_taxes_extremely_or_very_serious", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 58.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Neutral pre-message randomized issue battery; grouped with all FM3 issue-severity rows and not mapped to a candidate.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-right-direction-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "oregon_right_direction", "category": "state_mood", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 25.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Asked January 28 through February 2 within a 1,065-likely-voter issue survey; sponsor, frame, weighting, and likely-voter screen are undisclosed.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-mental-health-services-serious-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "mental_health_services_availability_extremely_or_very_serious", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 66.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Neutral pre-message randomized issue battery; the survey's later persuasive message tests are intentionally excluded.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-legislature-unfavorability-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "oregon_legislature_unfavorability", "category": "state_accountability", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 52.0, "unit": "percent unfavorable", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Paired with legislature favorability in the same FM3 sample; not independent evidence.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-legislature-favorability-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "oregon_legislature_favorability", "category": "state_accountability", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 35.0, "unit": "percent favorable", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Same FM3 issue-survey respondents; legislature sentiment is context rather than a gubernatorial vote estimate.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-housing-serious-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "housing_extremely_or_very_serious", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 82.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Neutral pre-message randomized issue battery; grouped with all FM3 issue-severity rows and not mapped to a candidate.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-homelessness-serious-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "homelessness_extremely_or_very_serious", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 87.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Neutral pre-message randomized issue battery; grouped with all FM3 issue-severity rows and not mapped to a candidate.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "kotek-unfavorability-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "kotek_unfavorability", "category": "candidate_image", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 54.0, "unit": "percent unfavorable", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Paired with Kotek favorability in the same FM3 sample; not independent evidence.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "kotek-favorability-fm3-2026-02", "series_id": "kotek_favorability", "category": "candidate_image", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "released_at": "2026-02-13T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 41.0, "unit": "percent favorable", "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "fm3_2026_01_02", "notes": "Same respondents as the FM3 state-direction and ballot measures; house and sponsor effects are uncalibrated.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "trump-disapproval-or-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "trump_disapproval_oregon", "category": "national_environment", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 55.0, "unit": "percent disapprove", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Oregon registered-voter reading from the OBI-sponsored DHM sample; it is a state political-climate observation and not a gubernatorial ballot test.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-right-direction-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "oregon_right_direction", "category": "state_mood", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 26.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Same 600-person OBI-sponsored registered-voter sample as the DHM approval and economic rows; all belong to one state-accountability evidence family.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-legislature-disapproval-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "oregon_legislature_disapproval", "category": "state_accountability", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 64.0, "unit": "percent disapprove", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Same respondents as the Kotek approval and state-direction measures; not independent evidence.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-legislative-ballot-rep-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "oregon_legislative_generic_ballot_rep", "category": "national_environment", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 45.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "State-legislative preference from the same DHM sample; it is not a gubernatorial vote estimate and is paired with the Democratic row.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-legislative-ballot-dem-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "oregon_legislative_generic_ballot_dem", "category": "national_environment", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 42.0, "unit": "percent", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "State-legislative preference from the same DHM sample; it is not a gubernatorial vote estimate and is paired with the Republican row.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-housing-affordability-worse-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "housing_affordability_worsening_perception", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 77.0, "unit": "percent saying worse", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Issue-severity perception from the same OBI-sponsored sample; it establishes salience but not vote direction by itself.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-economy-worse-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "oregon_economy_worsening_perception", "category": "economic_mood", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 68.0, "unit": "percent getting worse", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Subjective economic trend from the same DHM respondents; it can explain mood but receives no direct forecast coefficient.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-economy-poor-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "oregon_economy_poor_perception", "category": "economic_mood", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 73.0, "unit": "percent poor", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Subjective economic perception from one sponsor-framed issue survey; it is not combined independently with approval or state-direction rows.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-economic-blame-trump-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "oregon_worsening_economy_blame_trump", "category": "economic_attribution", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 29.0, "unit": "percent among economy-worse respondents", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Reduced-base attribution among respondents who said Oregon's economy was worsening; paired with Kotek and legislature blame rows.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-economic-blame-legislature-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "oregon_worsening_economy_blame_legislature", "category": "economic_attribution", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 22.0, "unit": "percent among economy-worse respondents", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Reduced-base attribution among respondents who said Oregon's economy was worsening; paired with Kotek and Trump blame rows.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-economic-blame-kotek-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "oregon_worsening_economy_blame_kotek", "category": "economic_attribution", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 43.0, "unit": "percent among economy-worse respondents", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Reduced-base attribution among respondents who said Oregon's economy was worsening; paired with Trump and legislature blame rows and not an all-voter percentage.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-cost-living-worse-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "cost_of_living_worsening_perception", "category": "issue_environment", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 85.0, "unit": "percent saying worse", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Issue-severity perception from the same OBI-sponsored sample; it establishes salience but not which candidate voters trust.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "kotek-disapproval-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "kotek_disapproval", "category": "approval", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 64.0, "unit": "percent disapprove", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Same respondents as the paired approval measure; the two rows are not independent observations.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "kotek-approval-dhm-2026-01", "series_id": "kotek_approval", "category": "approval", "as_of": "2026-01-30", "released_at": "2026-01-30T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 32.0, "unit": "percent approve", "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "commentary_only", "related_sample_id": "dhm_obi_2026_01", "notes": "Registered-voter issue survey sponsored by Oregon Business & Industry; questionnaire framing and house effects require historical calibration.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 }, { "signal_id": "or-2024-presidential-dem-two-party-margin", "series_id": "oregon_democratic_presidential_two_party_margin", "category": "partisan_baseline", "as_of": "2024-11-05", "released_at": "2025-01-17T12:00:00-08:00", "value": 14.87, "unit": "percentage points", "source_id": "fec_2024_presidential_results", "review_status": "verified", "model_status": "shadow_only", "related_sample_id": null, "notes": "Derived from certified Oregon votes for Harris and Trump: 100 × (1,240,600 − 919,480) / (1,240,600 + 919,480). It overlaps the structural partisan baseline and receives no separate effect.", "forecast_effect": 0.0 } ], "context_assessments": { "schema_version": "context-assessments.v1", "race_id": "oregon-governor-2026", "status": "reviewed", "as_of": "2026-08-21", "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "assessment_count": 10, "assessments": [ { "id": "oregon-partisan-baseline", "family": "partisan_baseline", "direction": "candidate", "target_candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "confidence": "medium", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Oregon's certified 2024 presidential vote produced a 14.87-point Democratic two-party margin. August 2026 registration also contains more Democrats than Republicans, while nonaffiliated voters are the largest registration group.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "fec_2024_presidential_results", "or_sos_registration_august_2026", "love_carlin_singer_2024_governor_forecast" ], "current_signal_ids": [ "or-2024-presidential-dem-two-party-margin", "or-registration-total-2026-08", "or-registration-dem-2026-08", "or-registration-rep-2026-08", "or-registration-nav-2026-08" ], "related_sample_ids": [] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "A durable Democratic-leaning electorate raises the starting floor for the Democratic nominee before campaign-specific evidence is considered.", "interpretation": "The statewide partisan baseline is a directional advantage for Tina Kotek.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "The 2022 governor race was much closer than the 2024 presidential vote, and party registration is neither turnout nor candidate preference.", "what_would_change_this": "A rolling historical model of Oregon county vote, registration, and turnout could strengthen or weaken the baseline; new registration alone should not." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "dependency_group": "partisan_baseline", "overlaps_model_component": [ "structural_prior", "electorate_bridge" ], "double_count_warning": "Do not add this as a separate point adjustment: the 2022 bridge and structural uncertainty already encode related partisan history.", "cadence": "monthly", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-21" }, { "id": "elected-incumbency", "family": "incumbency_and_approval", "direction": "candidate", "target_candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "confidence": "medium", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Kotek is the elected sitting governor seeking reelection. Peer-reviewed gubernatorial forecasting research finds that incumbency and governor approval interact rather than operating as independent forces.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "love_carlin_singer_2024_governor_forecast", "ebeid_rodden_gubernatorial_midterm" ], "current_signal_ids": [ "kotek-approval-dhm-2026-01", "kotek-disapproval-dhm-2026-01", "kotek-approval-pos-2026-06", "kotek-disapproval-pos-2026-06" ], "related_sample_ids": [ "dhm_obi_2026_01", "pos_2026_06" ] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "An elected incumbent normally has recognition, governing visibility, and an established coalition, but the value of those assets depends on how voters judge the incumbent's performance.", "interpretation": "Incumbent status gives Kotek a directional advantage, but it is materially weakened by her current approval readings.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "Historical incumbency estimates are not portable points, and the available Oregon approval readings come from only two sponsor-sensitive survey families.", "what_would_change_this": "A multi-poll Oregon approval average with house effects and repeated independent samples would show whether incumbency is functioning as an asset or a liability." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "dependency_group": "incumbency_state_accountability", "overlaps_model_component": [ "fundamentals_component" ], "double_count_warning": "Incumbency and approval must be evaluated together; do not count an incumbency bonus and then count the same approval evidence again as an independent force.", "cadence": "on_new_poll", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-21" }, { "id": "presidential-party-midterm-pressure", "family": "national_environment", "direction": "candidate", "target_candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "confidence": "medium", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Donald Trump is the sitting Republican president and Drazan is the Republican nominee. The latest Reuters/Ipsos registered-voter sample reports 35% Trump approval, 65% disapproval, and a 41% to 36% Democratic congressional-ballot lead; an earlier Oregon DHM sample reports 55% Trump disapproval.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "white_house_trump_administration_2026", "fec_2024_presidential_results", "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "reuters_ipsos_august_2026", "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "ebeid_rodden_gubernatorial_midterm", "holbrook_provow_1987_national_factors", "sievert_mckee_2019_nationalization" ], "current_signal_ids": [ "trump-disapproval-or-dhm-2026-01", "us-trump-approval-rv-reuters-2026-08", "us-trump-disapproval-rv-reuters-2026-08", "us-generic-ballot-dem-rv-reuters-2026-08", "us-generic-ballot-rep-rv-reuters-2026-08" ], "related_sample_ids": [ "dhm_obi_2026_01", "reuters_ipsos_2026_08" ] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "Gubernatorial elections have become more nationalized, and the president's party has often faced cross-level balancing or midterm pressure.", "interpretation": "The current presidential-party environment is a directional risk for Drazan and therefore a tailwind for Kotek.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "Studies disagree about whether a distinct gubernatorial midterm effect exists after presidential approval and economic conditions are considered; a national poll is not Oregon opinion.", "what_would_change_this": "Repeated Oregon measures of presidential approval, a sustained change in the national environment, or evidence that Drazan is separating her image from Trump would alter this assessment." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "dependency_group": "national_environment", "overlaps_model_component": [ "national_environment_points" ], "double_count_warning": "Trump approval, the generic ballot, national direction, and a historical midterm pattern are one national-environment family, not four independent effects.", "cadence": "on_new_poll", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-21" }, { "id": "state-accountability-pressure", "family": "state_accountability", "direction": "candidate", "target_candidate_id": "christine_drazan", "confidence": "medium", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Across three 2026 survey families, Oregon right-direction readings range from 25% to 34%, Kotek's disapproval is 57% to 64% in the two approval polls, and 66% in the POS sample want a great deal or quite a bit of change from the next governor.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline" ], "current_signal_ids": [ "or-right-direction-dhm-2026-01", "or-right-direction-pos-2026-06", "or-wrong-track-pos-2026-06", "or-desire-change-pos-2026-06", "or-right-direction-fm3-2026-02", "or-wrong-track-fm3-2026-02", "kotek-approval-dhm-2026-01", "kotek-disapproval-dhm-2026-01", "kotek-approval-pos-2026-06", "kotek-disapproval-pos-2026-06", "or-legislature-disapproval-dhm-2026-01", "or-legislature-favorability-fm3-2026-02", "or-legislature-unfavorability-fm3-2026-02" ], "related_sample_ids": [ "dhm_obi_2026_01", "pos_2026_06", "fm3_2026_01_02" ] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "A challenger can benefit when voters treat the governor race as a referendum on state direction and governing performance.", "interpretation": "Dissatisfaction with Oregon government is Drazan's clearest directional advantage.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "The surveys have different populations, sponsors, and disclosure quality, and their many answers are correlated within each sample. Desire for change does not automatically equal support for Drazan.", "what_would_change_this": "Independent repeated state-direction and Kotek-approval polls, especially with issue blame and candidate choice in the same questionnaire, would clarify how much dissatisfaction converts into votes." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "dependency_group": "incumbency_state_accountability", "overlaps_model_component": [ "fundamentals_component", "polling_component" ], "double_count_warning": "Kotek approval, legislature ratings, wrong-track sentiment, desire for change, and the gubernatorial ballot from the same respondents describe one accountability mechanism.", "cadence": "on_new_poll", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-21" }, { "id": "oregon-economic-accountability", "family": "economy", "direction": "candidate", "target_candidate_id": "christine_drazan", "confidence": "low", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "The July release reports 5.2% Oregon unemployment versus 4.1% nationally and a 4,100-job monthly payroll decline; the June forecast reports 0.6% Oregon real-GDP growth versus 2.0% nationally. In the DHM sample, 73% call the state economy poor, 68% say it is worsening, and 43% of that worsening subgroup blame Kotek.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "or_oed_july_2026_employment", "or_oea_q2_2026_forecast", "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "love_carlin_singer_2024_governor_forecast", "ebeid_rodden_gubernatorial_midterm", "holbrook_provow_1987_national_factors" ], "current_signal_ids": [ "or-unemployment-sa-2026-07", "us-unemployment-sa-2026-07", "or-payroll-change-2026-07", "or-gdp-yoy-2025-q4", "us-gdp-yoy-2025-q4", "or-economy-poor-dhm-2026-01", "or-economy-worse-dhm-2026-01", "or-economic-blame-kotek-dhm-2026-01", "or-economic-blame-trump-dhm-2026-01", "or-economic-blame-legislature-dhm-2026-01" ], "related_sample_ids": [ "dhm_obi_2026_01" ] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "Weak relative state conditions can reinforce an accountability argument when voters attribute them to the incumbent governor.", "interpretation": "The current combination points directionally toward Drazan, but only weakly because attribution—not the raw indicator—is the electoral mechanism.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "Economic releases are revised, one-month payroll movement is noisy, blame is divided, and the strongest modern gubernatorial forecasting benchmark found little incremental value from raw economic variables after political fundamentals.", "what_would_change_this": "A sustained multi-release trend plus independent polling on whether Oregon voters credit or blame the governor, president, or legislature would make the direction more credible." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "dependency_group": "economy", "overlaps_model_component": [ "state_conditions_points", "state_accountability" ], "double_count_warning": "Official indicators, perceived economic conditions, and Kotek approval can all express the same accountability channel and must not be stacked as separate effects.", "cadence": "monthly", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-21" }, { "id": "issue-salience-without-ownership", "family": "issue_environment", "direction": "unclear", "target_candidate_id": null, "confidence": "medium", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Cost of living, housing, homelessness, jobs, taxes, mental-health access, substance use, and wildfire all register as important or serious across the neutral pre-message portions of the three Oregon survey families.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline" ], "current_signal_ids": [ "or-cost-living-worse-dhm-2026-01", "or-housing-affordability-worse-dhm-2026-01", "or-top-issue-cost-living-pos-2026-06", "or-top-issue-homelessness-pos-2026-06", "or-top-issue-housing-pos-2026-06", "or-top-issue-taxes-pos-2026-06", "or-top-issue-jobs-economy-pos-2026-06", "or-housing-serious-fm3-2026-02", "or-homelessness-serious-fm3-2026-02", "or-state-taxes-serious-fm3-2026-02", "or-mental-health-services-serious-fm3-2026-02", "or-substance-use-serious-fm3-2026-02", "or-wildfire-serious-fm3-2026-02" ], "related_sample_ids": [ "dhm_obi_2026_01", "pos_2026_06", "fm3_2026_01_02" ] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "Issue salience matters only when it combines with candidate ownership, credibility, and voter attribution.", "interpretation": "The issue agenda is clear, but its net candidate direction is not yet identified.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "A high issue-severity response is not evidence that one candidate benefits. FM3's later persuasive message tests are excluded from this assessment.", "what_would_change_this": "Independent head-to-head issue-trust questions and evidence that campaigns are changing which issues voters use to choose a governor would establish direction." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "dependency_group": "issue_environment", "overlaps_model_component": [], "double_count_warning": "Multiple issue questions from one survey are a profile of the agenda, not independent electoral effects.", "cadence": "on_new_poll", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-21" }, { "id": "candidate-image-asymmetry", "family": "candidate_image", "direction": "mixed", "target_candidate_id": null, "confidence": "medium", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Kotek is nearly universally known in the POS sample but has a negative favorability balance in both POS and FM3. Drazan's POS ratings are less negative, but 41% either have no opinion of her or have never heard of her.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline" ], "current_signal_ids": [ "kotek-favorability-pos-2026-06", "kotek-unfavorability-pos-2026-06", "drazan-favorability-pos-2026-06", "drazan-unfavorability-pos-2026-06", "kotek-favorability-fm3-2026-02", "kotek-unfavorability-fm3-2026-02" ], "related_sample_ids": [ "pos_2026_06", "fm3_2026_01_02" ] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "A well-known incumbent has less room for image gains, while a less-known challenger has both persuasion upside and exposure risk.", "interpretation": "Kotek's current image is a liability; Drazan's lower definition creates an unresolved upside-versus-risk scenario rather than a clean advantage.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "The only Drazan favorability reading is from her campaign's sample, and candidate image is strongly correlated with that sample's ballot result.", "what_would_change_this": "Repeated independent favorability and awareness measures after major advertising, debates, or verified candidate events would show which side of the asymmetry is winning." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "dependency_group": "candidate_image", "overlaps_model_component": [ "polling_component" ], "double_count_warning": "Do not count favorability and the ballot result from the same sample as independent evidence.", "cadence": "on_new_poll", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-21" }, { "id": "electorate-engagement", "family": "electorate_pipeline", "direction": "unclear", "target_candidate_id": null, "confidence": "low", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Oregon's certified 2026 primary turnout was 41.87% of registered voters, while 76% of the POS sample rated their November-election interest between eight and ten on a ten-point scale.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "or_sos_2026_primary_certification", "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline" ], "current_signal_ids": [ "or-primary-turnout-2026", "or-election-interest-high-pos-2026-06" ], "related_sample_ids": [ "pos_2026_06" ] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "The composition of who votes can change a close race even when total engagement is high.", "interpretation": "The current turnout observations do not identify which candidate benefits.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "Primary participation and survey-reported interest are not general-election turnout, and statewide totals contain no partisan composition by themselves.", "what_would_change_this": "Party and county ballot returns compared at equal days before Election Day, plus validated turnout modeling, would make the electorate direction measurable." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "dependency_group": "electorate_pipeline", "overlaps_model_component": [ "electorate_bridge" ], "double_count_warning": "Registration, primary turnout, reported interest, and ballot returns are stages of one electorate pipeline and must not be stacked independently.", "cadence": "daily_after_ballots_mail", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-21" }, { "id": "provisional-candidate-field", "family": "candidate_field", "direction": "unclear", "target_candidate_id": null, "confidence": "low", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Brett Smith has been reported as the Pacific Green nominee, while Drazan's reported Libertarian cross-nomination is not yet supported by an official party result or a certified final ballot record.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "pacific_green_2026_nominations", "opb_2026_third_party_field", "lpo_2026_convention_notice", "kepw_2026_brett_smith_interview" ], "current_signal_ids": [], "related_sample_ids": [] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "The final candidate and cross-nomination field can affect residual vote share, ballot labels, and how completely the 2022 Johnson vote is reallocated.", "interpretation": "The direction is not identifiable before the ballot field and nomination records are authoritative.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "Candidate and first-person reports are not substitutes for certification; no vote transfer should be assumed from a ballot label.", "what_would_change_this": "The certified Oregon general-election candidate list and an official Libertarian Party nomination record would resolve the field." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "dependency_group": "candidate_field", "overlaps_model_component": [ "other_vote_share" ], "double_count_warning": "Do not count multiple stories about the same nomination as separate evidence or infer a mechanical partisan transfer.", "cadence": "on_ballot_update", "status": "monitoring", "as_of": "2026-08-21" }, { "id": "campaign-resources-monitor", "family": "campaign_resources", "direction": "candidate", "target_candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "confidence": "low", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "The August 21 Oregon Money Watch snapshot reports $8.57 million cash on hand for Kotek and $2.84 million for Drazan, alongside $7.55 million versus $5.74 million in contributions and $1.42 million versus $3.88 million in expenditures.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "or_sos_orestar_search", "oregon_money_watch_governor_2026" ], "current_signal_ids": [ "kotek-campaign-contributions-2026-08-21", "drazan-campaign-contributions-2026-08-21", "kotek-campaign-expenditures-2026-08-21", "drazan-campaign-expenditures-2026-08-21", "kotek-campaign-cash-2026-08-21", "drazan-campaign-cash-2026-08-21" ], "related_sample_ids": [] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "Campaign resources can expand advertising, field, and response capacity, but fundraising is also endogenous to donor expectations about the race.", "interpretation": "Kotek currently has the clearer financial-capacity advantage, while Drazan's heavier spending shows that cash alone does not describe campaign intensity.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "The committed figures come from a secondary daily aggregation, not a completed committee-by-committee ORESTAR reconciliation; cash, receipts, spending, debt, donor breadth, and independent expenditures are not interchangeable.", "what_would_change_this": "A normalized ORESTAR review of both candidate committees and independent spending, or a sustained reversal in the cash and spending relationship, would change this assessment." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0.0, "dependency_group": "campaign_resources", "overlaps_model_component": [], "double_count_warning": "Receipts, cash, spending, and advertising are one resource family and should not be added as separate forces.", "cadence": "weekly", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-21" } ] }, "accuracy": { "status": "research_preview", "probability_label": "research preview", "modeled_poll_count": 1, "distinct_pollsters": 1, "context_signal_count": 62, "context_signal_forecast_effect": 0.0, "context_assessment_count": 10, "context_assessment_forecast_effect": 0.0, "calibration_algorithm_version": "weighted-poll-baseline-0.1.0", "calibration_implementation_version": "production-poll-aggregation-backtest-0.2.0", "calibration_scope": "Out-of-time production-aggregator polling error by days before Election Day. This calibrates the polls-only baseline and does not validate the full fundamentals model.", "backtest_snapshots": [ { "days_before_election": 30, "series": "robust_polling", "race_count": 37, "mae": 5.6841, "rmse": 6.697, "error_sd": 6.7852, "central_80_error": [ -9.3201, 7.5256 ] }, { "days_before_election": 1, "series": "robust_polling", "race_count": 43, "mae": 4.7062, "rmse": 5.8508, "error_sd": 5.8825, "central_80_error": [ -6.3124, 7.8068 ] } ], "layers": [ { "layer_id": "certified_baseline", "label": "Certified 2022 baseline", "status": "validated_input", "summary": "Every county total is checked against the certified state result." }, { "layer_id": "poll_aggregation", "label": "Poll aggregation", "status": "historically_backtested", "summary": "Historical polling error is estimated at fixed pre-election cutoffs." }, { "layer_id": "oregon_bridge", "label": "2022–2026 Oregon bridge", "status": "proxy_informed_prior", "summary": "The conditional Johnson-transfer prior is proxy-informed; the Johnson-to-major rate is an unvalidated judgmental assumption. Both use broad uncertainty, while separate major-bloc retention assumptions appear only in unweighted public stress tests." }, { "layer_id": "fundamentals", "label": "Reviewed context observations", "status": "shadow_only", "summary": "62 verified observations are monitored with exactly zero forecast effect." }, { "layer_id": "directional_context", "label": "Reviewed directional context", "status": "commentary_only", "summary": "10 reviewed assessment(s) explain direction and caveats with exactly zero forecast effect." }, { "layer_id": "research_agent", "label": "LLM research assistant", "status": "shadow_only", "summary": "Source extraction and commentary drafts require human review; the assistant cannot edit model inputs, run the forecast, publish, or deploy." }, { "layer_id": "combined_probability", "label": "Combined win probability", "status": "end_to_end_backtest_pending", "summary": "The full combined probability has not yet passed a multi-cycle out-of-sample backtest." } ] }, "data_quality": { "grade": "D", "label": "preliminary", "score": 40, "poll_count": 1, "distinct_pollsters": 1, "fundamental_feature_count": 0, "uses_certified_2022_file": true, "candidate_field_status": "provisional", "warnings": [ { "code": "sparse_polling", "severity": "warning", "message": "Only 1 reviewed poll(s) are included; uncertainty retains a sparse-poll penalty." }, { "code": "limited_pollster_diversity", "severity": "warning", "message": "The polling estimate does not yet include enough distinct pollsters to assess house effects reliably." }, { "code": "stale_polling", "severity": "warning", "message": "The newest qualifying poll ended 58 days before the cutoff." }, { "code": "default_fundamentals", "severity": "warning", "message": "No dated fundamentals matched configured model features; research-preview default adjustments and uncertainty are in use." }, { "code": "context_signals_shadow_only", "severity": "info", "message": "62 reviewed context observations are monitored but have exactly zero forecast effect until their features pass out-of-sample testing." }, { "code": "context_assessments_commentary_only", "severity": "info", "message": "10 reviewed directional context assessment(s) are published as commentary with exactly zero forecast effect." }, { "code": "provisional_candidate_field", "severity": "warning", "message": "The minor-candidate roster is provisional; 'Other candidates' remains aggregated until the certified ballot is available." }, { "code": "johnson_transfer_not_directly_observed", "severity": "info", "message": "The 2022 Johnson-voter counterfactual is not directly observed. Its broad prior is informed by VoteCast relative-favorability and Clout aggregate forced-choice proxies; neither is a Johnson-voter second-choice result." }, { "code": "cross_nomination_unverified", "severity": "warning", "message": "A Libertarian cross-nomination of Drazan has been reported but is not authoritatively certified; the model labels her Republican and applies no direct adjustment." }, { "code": "polls_only_error_calibration", "severity": "info", "message": "Historical error calibration covers a weighted polls-only baseline, not the full combined model; probabilities remain a research preview." } ] }, "sources": [ { "source_id": "or_sos_2022_general_abstract", "title": "2022 November General Election Official Results — Abstract of Votes", "publisher": "Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division", "canonical_url": "https://records.sos.state.or.us/ORSOSCMSearch/Search/SearchDetail.aspx?uri=13735454", "source_type": "certified_election_result", "authority_tier": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T17:35:02Z", "as_of_date": "2022-12-15", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": "8d04f156cc9df40109a0275ee76271fb383d7bf0d88726b5661f54985523667f", "notes": "Record EPD/25/128. The archive viewer embeds the 30-page certified PDF; SHA-256 is of that PDF as retrieved. The county table labels write-ins as 'Misc.' No repository snapshot is retained in this initial dataset.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "or_sos_historical_data", "title": "Election Results & History", "publisher": "Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division", "canonical_url": "https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/pages/historical-data.aspx", "source_type": "official_source_index", "authority_tier": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T17:31:00Z", "as_of_date": "2026-08-21", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Official index linking Oregon election history and precinct data.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "fm3_2026_oregon_mental_health_topline", "title": "Oregon Mental Health Survey — Questionnaire and Toplines (220-7837-WT)", "publisher": "FM3 Research attribution; commissioner undisclosed", "canonical_url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/69665fd94fa3306343a6fa9b/t/698f7e369f300a1c91a1696e/1771011638201/220-7837-WT%2BOregon%2BMental%2BHealth%2BSurvey%2B%282%29.pdf", "source_type": "poll_questionnaire_topline", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T17:38:00Z", "as_of_date": "2026-02-04", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Original 11-page release. It identifies 1,065 likely November 2026 voters and mixed telephone/online-text collection, but not the exact A-split ballot-test n, sponsor, sample frame, weighting, or likely-voter screen. FM3 attribution is from contemporaneous public reporting rather than text printed in the PDF.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "pos_2026_oregon_statewide_topline", "title": "Oregon Statewide Survey Topline — Project 260275", "publisher": "Public Opinion Strategies / Christine Drazan for Oregon; hosted by OPB", "canonical_url": "https://www.opb.org/pdf/Oregon%20Statewide%20Survey%20Topline_1783692333016.pdf", "source_type": "poll_questionnaire_topline", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T17:37:00Z", "as_of_date": "2026-06-24", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Original six-page campaign-released topline. Public Opinion Strategies attribution and campaign sponsorship are corroborated by OPB's July 10 report. The release gives N=600 voters and ±4.0% sampling margin but omits frame and weighting details.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "opb_2026_drazan_primary", "title": "Christine Drazan takes Republican nomination", "publisher": "Oregon Public Broadcasting", "canonical_url": "https://www.opb.org/article/2026/05/19/christine-drazan-has-lead-in-first-batch-of-ballots-counted/", "source_type": "news_report", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T17:43:00Z", "as_of_date": "2026-05-19", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Used to establish the Republican nominee event; final certified primary totals should replace this source in the ballot-field input when acquired.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "opb_2026_race_competitive", "title": "Early signs suggest Oregon governor’s race is competitive", "publisher": "Oregon Public Broadcasting", "canonical_url": "https://www.opb.org/article/2026/07/10/oregon-governor-race-competitive-early-signs-show/", "source_type": "news_report_and_poll_corroboration", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T17:37:00Z", "as_of_date": "2026-07-10", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Corroborates Public Opinion Strategies, Drazan-campaign sponsorship, release date, and the reported disposition of the final 2%.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "pacific_green_2026_nominations", "title": "Pacific Green Party of Oregon — 2026 nominating convention updates", "publisher": "Pacific Green Party of Oregon", "canonical_url": "https://www.pacificgreens.org/", "source_type": "party_nomination_announcement", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T17:44:00Z", "as_of_date": "2026-07-20", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Party site identifies Brett Smith as its governor nominee. The page is mutable; certified ballot data must supersede it.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "opb_2026_third_party_field", "title": "Could a third-party candidate shake up the Oregon governor’s race?", "publisher": "Oregon Public Broadcasting", "canonical_url": "https://www.opb.org/article/2026/07/23/oregon-governor-race-third-party-candidate-brett-smith/", "source_type": "news_report", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T17:45:00Z", "as_of_date": "2026-07-23", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Reports Smith as the only minor-party nominee then slated for the ballot and explicitly warns that the ballot field was not yet final.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "lpo_2026_convention_notice", "title": "2026 LPO Nominating Convention — Official Notice", "publisher": "Libertarian Party of Oregon", "canonical_url": "https://lporegon.org/lpo-news/", "source_type": "party_convention_notice", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T17:46:00Z", "as_of_date": "2026-07-25", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Confirms the July 25 convention but, as retrieved, does not publish its gubernatorial nomination result.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "kepw_2026_brett_smith_interview", "title": "Meet the candidate: Brett Smith for Oregon governor", "publisher": "KEPW / Whole Community News", "canonical_url": "https://kepw-wholecommunity.news/2026/08/07/meet-the-candidate-brett-smith-for-oregon-governor/", "source_type": "candidate_interview", "authority_tier": 3, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T17:46:00Z", "as_of_date": "2026-08-07", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Contains Brett Smith's first-person account that Christine Drazan received the Libertarian nomination. This is not a substitute for party documentation or certified ballot data.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "or_sos_registration_august_2026", "title": "Voter Registration — August 2026", "publisher": "Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division", "canonical_url": "https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/Registration/2026-August.pdf", "source_type": "official_registration_report", "authority_tier": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T21:04:41Z", "as_of_date": "2026-08-04", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Official statewide and county registration tables. Registration is tracked as a shadow signal and is not treated as vote intention.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "or_sos_2026_primary_certification", "title": "Secretary Read Certifies May Election Results, Confirms Historic Turnout", "publisher": "Oregon Secretary of State", "canonical_url": "https://apps.oregon.gov/oregon-newsroom/OR/SOS/Posts/Post/secretary-read-certifies-may-2026-election-results-confirms-historic-turnout", "source_type": "official_election_certification_release", "authority_tier": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T21:04:41Z", "as_of_date": "2026-06-25", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Official certification release reporting a 41.87% statewide primary turnout rate.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "dhm_obi_2026_presession_poll", "title": "Oregon Business & Industry Pre-Session Survey", "publisher": "DHM Research / Oregon Business & Industry; hosted by OPB", "canonical_url": "https://www.opb.org/pdf/OBI%20Pre-Session%20Polling%5B1%5D_1769813023180.pdf", "source_type": "issue_and_approval_poll_report", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T21:04:41Z", "as_of_date": "2026-01-30", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Mixed phone and text-to-web survey of 600 registered Oregon voters. Approval is commentary-only until a historical approval model is calibrated.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "or_oed_july_2026_employment", "title": "Oregon's Nonfarm Payroll Employment Drops by 4,100 in July", "publisher": "Oregon Employment Department", "canonical_url": "https://www.oregon.gov/employ/Documents/2026-08-19-employment-ore.pdf", "source_type": "official_economic_release", "authority_tier": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T21:04:41Z", "as_of_date": "2026-07-31", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Official release-vintage labor-force and payroll tables. Economic observations remain shadow-only pending historical calibration.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "or_oea_q2_2026_forecast", "title": "Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast — June 2026", "publisher": "Oregon Office of Economic Analysis", "canonical_url": "https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/Documents/OEA-Forecast-0626.pdf", "source_type": "official_economic_forecast", "authority_tier": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T21:04:41Z", "as_of_date": "2026-05-20", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Release-vintage Oregon and U.S. economic comparisons. The forecast engine does not apply narrative economic judgments.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "or_sos_orestar_search", "title": "Search for Campaign Finance Information", "publisher": "Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division", "canonical_url": "https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/campaign-finance/Pages/search-campaign-finance.aspx", "source_type": "official_campaign_finance_index", "authority_tier": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T21:04:41Z", "as_of_date": "2026-08-21", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Canonical discovery source for campaign finance. No fundraising-to-vote coefficient is applied without an out-of-sample historical test.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "ap_votecast_2022_public_use", "title": "AP VoteCast 2022 — Methodology and Public Use Files", "publisher": "The Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago", "canonical_url": "https://apnorc.org/projects/ap-votecast-2022/", "source_type": "near_exit_survey_public_use_microdata", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T21:20:00Z", "as_of_date": "2022-11-08", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": "b6fc0e0b6520fb128e1b45bbbc8cf919e4df267690a1cc6fd5201b6b1a7391fa", "notes": "SHA-256 is for the official public-use ZIP. Repository artifacts retain only aggregate audit statistics, variable names, and formulas—not respondent rows. Oregon has no second-choice question; relative Kotek/Drazan favorability among named Johnson voters is used only as a noisy proxy.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "clout_2022_sep_forced_choice", "title": "Oregon Statewide Survey — September 23–26, 2022 Topline", "publisher": "Clout Research", "canonical_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20220929213608id_/http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2022/09/OR-Statewide-Survey-Topline-Report-9-26-2022.pdf", "source_type": "poll_questionnaire_topline", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T21:20:00Z", "as_of_date": "2022-09-26", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": "33124b5608cd313724763002eaf0b300422f8195112d40d783929793c7bc3e54", "notes": "Same sample received a three-way ballot and a later forced Kotek–Drazan choice, but no respondent-level transition table or microdata was published. Aggregate changes cannot identify Johnson voters' second choices without strong assumptions.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "fec_2024_presidential_results", "title": "Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results", "publisher": "Federal Election Commission", "canonical_url": "https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdf", "source_type": "certified_election_result", "authority_tier": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T04:43:30Z", "as_of_date": "2024-11-05", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Official compilation from state election offices. Oregon's certified presidential vote is retained as a descriptive partisan-baseline observation; it receives no separate forecast effect because the structural prior may already encode related history.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "white_house_trump_administration_2026", "title": "President Donald J. Trump", "publisher": "The White House", "canonical_url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/donald-j-trump/", "source_type": "official_officeholder_record", "authority_tier": 1, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T04:43:30Z", "as_of_date": "2026-08-21", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Official administration page establishing Donald J. Trump as the sitting president. Party identification is established by the FEC's certified 2024 result.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "reuters_ipsos_august_2026", "title": "Reuters/Ipsos August 2026 Poll — Topline and Methodology", "publisher": "Reuters / Ipsos", "canonical_url": "https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-08/Reuters%20Ipsos%20August%202026%20Poll%20Topline%20Full.pdf", "source_type": "national_issue_and_approval_poll_topline", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T04:43:30Z", "as_of_date": "2026-08-17", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Probability-based KnowledgePanel survey of 1,166 U.S. adults, including 876 registered voters, fielded August 14–17. National political-environment observations are commentary-only and are not treated as Oregon vote intention.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "love_carlin_singer_2024_governor_forecast", "title": "LASSOing the Governor’s Mansion: A Machine-Learning Approach to Forecasting Gubernatorial Elections", "publisher": "PS: Political Science & Politics / Cambridge University Press", "canonical_url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/lassoing-the-governors-mansion-a-machine-learning-approach-to-forecasting-gubernatorial-elections/761EEFC6D3D8F63602A4CC12EB5E9974", "source_type": "peer_reviewed_forecast_research", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T04:43:30Z", "as_of_date": "2024-10-15", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Open-access peer-reviewed model trained on 346 pre-pandemic gubernatorial elections. It supports researching partisan baseline, incumbency, governor approval, state presidential approval, and president–governor party alignment, but its coefficients are not imported into this forecast without independent rolling-origin validation.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "ebeid_rodden_gubernatorial_midterm", "title": "When and Where Do Economic Conditions Affect Elections? Evidence from the U.S. States", "publisher": "Michael Ebeid and Jonathan Rodden; Stanford/MIT working paper", "canonical_url": "https://web.mit.edu/jrodden/www/materials/farmstatesjuly03.pdf", "source_type": "historical_election_research", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T04:43:30Z", "as_of_date": "2003-07-18", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Observational study of competitive gubernatorial elections in 47 states from 1950–1998. It supports only a qualitative presidential-party midterm-pressure direction here; its historical point estimates are not portable forecast adjustments.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "holbrook_provow_1987_national_factors", "title": "National Factors in Gubernatorial Elections", "publisher": "American Politics Quarterly / SAGE", "canonical_url": "https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1532673X8701500403", "source_type": "peer_reviewed_historical_election_research", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T04:43:30Z", "as_of_date": "1987-10-01", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Finds effects from national economic conditions, presidential popularity, and incumbency but not a distinct congressional-style midterm effect. Retained as an explicit counterweight to stronger midterm-effect claims.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "sievert_mckee_2019_nationalization", "title": "Nationalization in U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial Elections", "publisher": "American Politics Research / SAGE", "canonical_url": "https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1532673X18792694", "source_type": "peer_reviewed_historical_election_research", "authority_tier": 2, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T04:43:30Z", "as_of_date": "2019-01-01", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Documents increasing nationalization of gubernatorial elections with regional variation. It supports monitoring the national environment but not converting a national poll directly into Oregon points.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null }, { "source_id": "oregon_money_watch_governor_2026", "title": "2026 Oregon Governor Campaign Finance — Graph View", "publisher": "Oregon Money Watch", "canonical_url": "https://ormoneywatch.com/executive-offices/governor/graph-view/", "source_type": "campaign_finance_secondary_aggregation", "authority_tier": 3, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T05:05:00Z", "as_of_date": "2026-08-21", "local_snapshot_path": null, "sha256": null, "notes": "Daily campaign-finance aggregation that states its data are uploaded from the Oregon Secretary of State. Used as a provisional commentary-only capacity snapshot; figures are not a substitute for a committee-by-committee ORESTAR reconciliation and receive no forecast effect.", "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null } ], "reproducibility": { "input_hashes": { "results_2022": "6ca6f2e5db8eb6a43bf74efc29446d0d070753ab4feaf7a6d9e3545280e9b00a", "polls": "58e917d832f02c68541f1c346ff1badb633a07b273f03423529b1f4cfe59fc0b", "fundamentals": "b0afecce5f4aec7b46b190419e24ac7c3228dca3efe546f6574b6df3fd8398f8", "events": "2fd3dcd56dd0ab742564418bec7c47d1157562c587fef2868327af7313424e65", "sources": "d3e1ac86e955c1731ad22046628712dece65ad61153bc35a7d70fc4ec3a67c8e", "calibration": "58fefd8ee202ebf7ee406146ce2c054e7fe86f3ff6572cac7fd957a83bdffb3f", "bridge_analysis": "408525a520a526bff2d7a3cd34d98259050fd2c11f528f9d1295a5f32a8b1121", "johnson_transfer_evidence": "c2481e03c58b8c2a22793377ce3be6dbc4c48393769b8460e0f65886b2ecb905", "context_signals": "72fbecfeee69a5e0d97ecfc1d88e027486a6d6f0f2d45ef07d528fdda6e3b1ce", "context_assessments": "f43f3260d64cdd6008f66dd0074eb6945f2f198fd698af62dae5e9bfa53e193f", "config": "9fa045609b8f194cfac1138ebddefd648d74b07e3ac1bee42d59eda2385dc2f8" }, "source_manifest_sha256": "d3e1ac86e955c1731ad22046628712dece65ad61153bc35a7d70fc4ec3a67c8e", "code_revision": "11c12325b26b1397b1d062f29dade10df943e172", "configuration": { "schema_version": "model-config.v1", "model_version": "0.2.0", "methodology_version": "0.2", "validation_state": "research_preview", "election": { "name": "2026 Oregon gubernatorial election", "date": "2026-11-03", "timezone": "America/Los_Angeles", "forecast_freeze_time": "20:00:00" }, "simulation": { "count": 40000, "seed": 20260821 }, "display": { "probability_decimals": 0, "vote_share_decimals": 1, "margin_decimals": 1 }, "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "tina_kotek", "name": "Tina Kotek", "party": "Democratic", "role": "kotek" }, { "candidate_id": "christine_drazan", "name": "Christine Drazan", "party": "Republican", "role": "drazan" }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Other candidates", "party": "Other", "role": "minor", "minor_share_weight": 1.0, "is_aggregate": true } ], "candidate_field_status": "provisional", "prior": { "fallback_2022_shares": { "tina_kotek": 46.96, "christine_drazan": 43.54, "betsy_johnson": 8.62, "other_2022": 0.88 }, "historical_candidate_roles": { "kotek": [ "tina_kotek", "kotek" ], "drazan": [ "christine_drazan", "drazan" ], "johnson": [ "betsy_johnson", "johnson" ] }, "johnson_redistribution": { "to_kotek_mean": 0.48, "to_kotek_sd": 0.16, "to_kotek_min": 0.05, "to_kotek_max": 0.85, "evidence_status": "indirect_proxy_evidence_not_second_choice", "evidence_source_ids": [ "ap_votecast_2022_public_use", "clout_2022_sep_forced_choice" ], "basis": "A judgmental, deliberately broad approximation informed by AP VoteCast relative-favorability comparisons among 2022 Johnson voters and Clout Research's same-sample aggregate forced-choice ballot. 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