{ "schema_version": "forecast-artifact.v1", "run": { "run_id": "2026-08-24T17-35-00-07-00__m0.2.0__d7385f27c0aae", "status": "research_preview", "generated_at": "2026-08-24T17:35:00-07:00", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-24T17:10:00-07:00", "election_date": "2026-11-03", "timezone": "America/Los_Angeles", "days_to_election": 71, "model_version": "0.2.0", "methodology_version": "generic-polling-0.2", "data_version": "7385f27c0aae", "simulation_count": 40000, "random_seed": 2026082402, "validation_state": "research_preview", "model_kind": "polling_only_research_preview" }, "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "aaron_ford", "name": "Aaron Ford", "party": "Democratic", "role": "democratic_nominee", "is_aggregate": false }, { "candidate_id": "joseph_lombardo", "name": "Joe Lombardo", "party": "Republican", "role": "republican_nominee", "is_aggregate": false }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Danielle Ford, None, and others (aggregate)", "party": "Other", "role": "aggregate_remainder", "is_aggregate": true } ], "views": { "nowcast": { "label": "If voting ended today", "leader_candidate_id": "joseph_lombardo", "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "aaron_ford", "name": "Aaron Ford", "party": "Democratic", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.4742, "vote_share": { "median": 45.835, "mean": 45.9047, "interval_50": { "lower": 42.0023, "upper": 49.6703 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 38.7094, "upper": 53.2034 } } }, { "candidate_id": "joseph_lombardo", "name": "Joe Lombardo", "party": "Republican", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.5258, "vote_share": { "median": 46.4583, "mean": 46.5746, "interval_50": { "lower": 42.7098, "upper": 50.3627 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 39.3939, "upper": 53.8873 } } }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Danielle Ford, None, and others (aggregate)", "party": "Other", "is_aggregate": true, "win_probability": null, "win_probability_status": "not_modeled", "vote_share": { "median": 7.2855, "mean": 7.5207, "interval_50": { "lower": 3.5342, "upper": 11.0286 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.2073, "upper": 14.4172 } } } ], "probability_scope": "conditional_on_one_of_the_two_modeled_major_candidates_winning", "major_candidate_margin": { "median": -0.6482, "mean": -0.6699, "interval_50": { "lower": -7.486, "upper": 6.1325 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -13.5627, "upper": 12.1419 } }, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -0.7069, "mean": -0.7284, "interval_50": { "lower": -8.1018, "upper": 6.6291 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -14.666, "upper": 13.1588 } }, "margin_convention": "Positive values indicate Aaron Ford leads; negative values indicate Joe Lombardo leads." }, "election_forecast": { "label": "Election-day forecast", "leader_candidate_id": "joseph_lombardo", "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "aaron_ford", "name": "Aaron Ford", "party": "Democratic", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.466625, "vote_share": { "median": 45.7787, "mean": 45.8743, "interval_50": { "lower": 42.2392, "upper": 49.4194 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 39.047, "upper": 52.8369 } } }, { "candidate_id": "joseph_lombardo", "name": "Joe Lombardo", "party": "Republican", "is_aggregate": false, "win_probability": 0.533375, "vote_share": { "median": 46.4967, "mean": 46.581, "interval_50": { "lower": 42.9087, "upper": 50.1904 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 39.5981, "upper": 53.6382 } } }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Danielle Ford, None, and others (aggregate)", "party": "Other", "is_aggregate": true, "win_probability": null, "win_probability_status": "not_modeled", "vote_share": { "median": 7.2545, "mean": 7.5447, "interval_50": { "lower": 3.1412, "upper": 11.3512 }, "interval_80": { "lower": 0.0, "upper": 14.9715 } } } ], "probability_scope": "conditional_on_one_of_the_two_modeled_major_candidates_winning", "major_candidate_margin": { "median": -0.7202, "mean": -0.7067, "interval_50": { "lower": -6.714, "upper": 5.291 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -12.5772, "upper": 11.2332 } }, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -0.7826, "mean": -0.761, "interval_50": { "lower": -7.2953, "upper": 5.731 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -13.6289, "upper": 12.1758 } }, "margin_convention": "Positive values indicate Aaron Ford leads; negative values indicate Joe Lombardo leads." } }, "components": { "polls": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -0.7069, "mean": -0.7284, "interval_50": { "lower": -8.1018, "upper": 6.6291 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -14.666, "upper": 13.1588 } }, "accepted_count": 2, "distinct_pollsters": 2, "effective_poll_count": 1.113 }, "historical_reference": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -2.3658, "mean": -2.3658, "interval_50": { "lower": -2.3658, "upper": -2.3658 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -2.3658, "upper": -2.3658 } }, "forecast_effect": 0 }, "combined": { "available": true, "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -0.7826, "mean": -0.761, "interval_50": { "lower": -7.2953, "upper": 5.731 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -13.6289, "upper": 12.1758 } }, "poll_influence": 1.0, "historical_reference_influence": 0.0, "historical_error_calibration": { "algorithm_version": "weighted-poll-baseline-0.1.0", "implementation_version": "production-poll-aggregation-backtest-0.3.0", "scope": "Out-of-time production-aggregator polling error by days before Election Day. This calibrates the polls-only baseline and does not validate the full fundamentals model.", "selected_horizon_days": 60, "selected_stratum": "sparse_polling", "race_count": 17, "mae": 8.2313, "rmse": 10.2334, "error_sd": 10.2661, "central_80_error": [ -11.568, 10.592 ] }, "error_distribution": "student_t", "error_degrees_of_freedom": 7.0 }, "election_rule": { "rule": "plurality", "runoff_probability": 0.0, "treatment": "The named candidate with the most simulated votes wins the draw." } }, "bridge": [ { "stage_id": "previous_governor_result", "label": "Certified 2022 governor result", "description": "Steve Sisolak versus Joe Lombardo, with other named candidates and None retained in the remainder.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -1.571, "mean": -1.571, "interval_50": { "lower": -1.571, "upper": -1.571 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -1.571, "upper": -1.571 } }, "candidate_vote_shares": { "aaron_ford": 47.297097, "joseph_lombardo": 48.806904, "other_candidates": 3.895999 }, "source_ids": [ "nv_sos_2022_governor" ], "forecast_effect": 0, "is_model_estimate": false }, { "stage_id": "presidential_2024_result", "label": "Certified 2024 presidential result", "description": "Nevada's certified presidential vote, shown only as a recent statewide comparison.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -3.1607, "mean": -3.1607, "interval_50": { "lower": -3.1607, "upper": -3.1607 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -3.1607, "upper": -3.1607 } }, "candidate_vote_shares": { "aaron_ford": 47.49, "joseph_lombardo": 50.59, "other_candidates": 1.92 }, "source_ids": [ "fec_2024_president" ], "forecast_effect": 0, "is_model_estimate": false }, { "stage_id": "structural_2026", "label": "Historical reference midpoint", "description": "The midpoint of the certified governor and presidential two-party margins. It is a descriptive comparison with exactly zero separate forecast effect.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -2.3658, "mean": -2.3658, "interval_50": { "lower": -2.3658, "upper": -2.3658 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -2.3658, "upper": -2.3658 } }, "forecast_effect": 0, "is_model_estimate": false }, { "stage_id": "current_polls", "label": "Current polls", "description": "Quality-, recency-, sponsor-, and correlation-adjusted estimate from reviewed polls.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -0.7069, "mean": -0.7284, "interval_50": { "lower": -8.1018, "upper": 6.6291 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -14.666, "upper": 13.1588 } }, "available": true, "is_model_estimate": true }, { "stage_id": "november_forecast", "label": "Election Day forecast", "description": "The current polling center with uncertainty set by the nearest out-of-time gubernatorial polling-error calibration; historical reference results add no points.", "normalized_two_candidate_margin": { "median": -0.7826, "mean": -0.761, "interval_50": { "lower": -7.2953, "upper": 5.731 }, "interval_80": { "lower": -13.6289, "upper": 12.1758 } }, "is_model_estimate": true } ], "bridge_diagnostics": null, "polls": [ { "poll_id": "2026-07-16-ppp-ford-lombardo", "pollster": "Public Policy Polling", "sponsor": "Democratic Governors Association", "partisan_sponsor": "D", "field_start": "2026-07-15", "field_end": "2026-07-16", "published_at": "2026-07-20T23:59:59.999999-07:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 558, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Telephone and text-to-web", "raw": { "aaron_ford": 44.0, "joseph_lombardo": 44.0, "other": null, "undecided": 12.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 0.0, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -0.8, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": -0.8, "quality_multiplier": 0.393494, "recency_multiplier": 0.38081, "sampling_sd": 4.233338, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original memo reviewed. Apply a Democratic sponsor penalty; the released head-to-head does not separately measure Danielle Ford or None.", "source_id": "nv_ppp_july_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.946349, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included under the generic polling-only research-preview rules." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-03-13-npi-ford-lombardo", "pollster": "Noble Predictive Insights", "sponsor": "Nevada Public Opinion Pulse", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-10", "field_end": "2026-03-13", "published_at": "2026-03-19T23:59:59.999999-07:00", "population": "RV", "sample_size": 845, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Opt-in online panel", "raw": { "aaron_ford": 38.0, "joseph_lombardo": 39.0, "other": 6.0, "undecided": 17.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": true, "raw_two_candidate_margin": -1.298701, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -1.298701, "other_decided_share": 7.228916, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.325125, "recency_multiplier": 0.017251, "sampling_sd": 3.439814, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original methodology and release reviewed. Apply panel and registered-voter penalties; the six-point third-option result is retained in the aggregate remainder.", "source_id": "nv_npi_march_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.053651, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included under the generic polling-only research-preview rules." } } ], "poll_ledger": [ { "poll_id": "2026-07-16-ppp-ford-lombardo", "pollster": "Public Policy Polling", "sponsor": "Democratic Governors Association", "partisan_sponsor": "D", "field_start": "2026-07-15", "field_end": "2026-07-16", "published_at": "2026-07-20T23:59:59.999999-07:00", "population": "LV", "sample_size": 558, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Telephone and text-to-web", "raw": { "aaron_ford": 44.0, "joseph_lombardo": 44.0, "other": null, "undecided": 12.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": false, "raw_two_candidate_margin": 0.0, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -0.8, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": -0.8, "quality_multiplier": 0.393494, "recency_multiplier": 0.38081, "sampling_sd": 4.233338, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original memo reviewed. Apply a Democratic sponsor penalty; the released head-to-head does not separately measure Danielle Ford or None.", "source_id": "nv_ppp_july_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.946349, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } }, { "poll_id": "2026-03-13-npi-ford-lombardo", "pollster": "Noble Predictive Insights", "sponsor": "Nevada Public Opinion Pulse", "partisan_sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-10", "field_end": "2026-03-13", "published_at": "2026-03-19T23:59:59.999999-07:00", "population": "RV", "sample_size": 845, "sample_size_disclosed": true, "mode": "Opt-in online panel", "raw": { "aaron_ford": 38.0, "joseph_lombardo": 39.0, "other": 6.0, "undecided": 17.0 }, "other_share_disclosed": true, "raw_two_candidate_margin": -1.298701, "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -1.298701, "other_decided_share": 7.228916, "house_effect_adjustment": -0.0, "sponsorship_adjustment": 0.0, "quality_multiplier": 0.325125, "recency_multiplier": 0.017251, "sampling_sd": 3.439814, "review_status": "accepted_with_penalty", "review_note": "Original methodology and release reviewed. Apply panel and registered-voter penalties; the six-point third-option result is retained in the aggregate remainder.", "source_id": "nv_npi_march_2026", "question_text": "If the election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?", "normalized_weight": 0.053651, "model_use": { "included": true, "reason": "Included in the current polling average." } } ], "poll_exclusions": [], "poll_trend": [ { "date": "2026-03-13", "poll_id": "2026-03-13-npi-ford-lombardo", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -1.298701, "other_decided_share": 7.228916, "weight": 0.053651 }, { "date": "2026-07-16", "poll_id": "2026-07-16-ppp-ford-lombardo", "adjusted_two_candidate_margin": -0.8, "other_decided_share": 0.0, "weight": 0.946349 } ], "probability_history": [ { "date": "2026-08-24T17:35:00-07:00", "data_cutoff": "2026-08-24T17:10:00-07:00", "run_id": "2026-08-24T17-35-00-07-00__m0.2.0__d7385f27c0aae", "model_version": "0.2.0", "data_version": "7385f27c0aae", "margin": -0.7202, "low": -12.5772, "high": 11.2332, "candidate_win_probabilities": { "aaron_ford": 0.466625, "joseph_lombardo": 0.533375 }, "margin_basis": "all_ballot_major_candidate_margin", "probability_scope": "conditional_on_one_of_the_two_modeled_major_candidates_winning" } ], "evidence_ledger": [ { "event_id": "nv_2026_major_party_nominees", "event_at": "2026-06-09", "published_at": "2026-06-10", "headline": "Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo win the Democratic and Republican nominations", "category": "candidate_field", "candidates": [ "aaron_ford", "joseph_lombardo", "other_candidates" ], "mechanism": "candidate_field", "status": "confirmed", "source_ids": [ "nv_primary_2026_ap", "nv_2026_candidate_field" ], "summary": "The major-party matchup is set, while the public page aggregates the named nonpartisan candidate and None in its first preview.", "model_treatment": { "type": "defined_input_update", "effect": "Set the two modeled major candidates and preserve a prominent extra-options warning; no margin adjustment." } }, { "event_id": "nv_2026_july_polling", "event_at": "2026-07-16", "published_at": "2026-07-20", "headline": "A Democratic-sponsored survey reports a tied Nevada governor race", "category": "qualifying_poll", "candidates": [ "aaron_ford", "joseph_lombardo" ], "mechanism": "polling_evidence", "status": "confirmed", "source_ids": [ "nv_ppp_july_2026" ], "summary": "The survey reports Ford and Lombardo tied, with the sponsor relationship reflected in its model weight.", "model_treatment": { "type": "poll_record", "effect": "Include with partisan-sponsor, quality, recency, and sparse-poll uncertainty controls." } } ], "context_signals": [], "context_assessments": { "schema_version": "context-assessments.v1", "race_id": "nevada-governor-2026", "status": "reviewed", "as_of": "2026-08-24", "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0, "assessment_count": 2, "assessments": [ { "id": "nv_state_control_stakes", "family": "state_control", "direction": "neutral", "target_candidate_id": null, "confidence": "high", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "Nevada currently has a Republican governor and Democratic majorities in both legislative chambers.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "nv_state_control_2026" ], "current_signal_ids": [], "related_sample_ids": [] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "A Ford win combined with retained Democratic chambers could create unified Democratic control; a Lombardo win would preserve the current executive check if the chamber pattern holds.", "interpretation": "The governor race can materially change Nevada's veto, appointment, and agenda-setting balance.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "The control outcome is conditional on separate legislative elections and does not itself predict the governor vote.", "what_would_change_this": "Certified legislative results would determine whether the governor result produces unified or divided control." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0, "dependency_group": "nv_state_control_2026", "overlaps_model_component": [], "double_count_warning": "Political consequences are commentary only and add zero forecast points.", "cadence": "on_control_change", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-24" }, { "id": "nv_extra_options_aggregated", "family": "candidate_field", "direction": "neutral", "target_candidate_id": null, "confidence": "high", "observed_evidence": { "summary": "The ballot includes the two major-party nominees, a named nonpartisan candidate, and Nevada's None of These Candidates option.", "evidence_source_ids": [ "nv_primary_2026_ap", "nv_2026_candidate_field" ], "current_signal_ids": [], "related_sample_ids": [] }, "analyst_inference": { "mechanism": "Extra options can absorb vote share even though None cannot win; Danielle Ford remains a distinct winner-eligible candidate.", "interpretation": "The first preview aggregates these options and therefore estimates only the two major candidates' win chances.", "counterweight_or_caveat": "Aggregation can hide differential support and must not be read as an individual forecast for Danielle Ford or None.", "what_would_change_this": "Repeated full-field surveys would support a separate modeled distribution for the named nonpartisan candidate and None." }, "model_status": "commentary_only", "forecast_effect": 0, "dependency_group": "nv_candidate_field_2026", "overlaps_model_component": [], "double_count_warning": "The candidate-field disclosure changes interpretation, not the two-party polling margin.", "cadence": "on_new_poll", "status": "active", "as_of": "2026-08-24" } ] }, "accuracy": { "status": "research_preview", "probability_label": "polling-only research preview", "modeled_poll_count": 2, "distinct_pollsters": 2, "context_signal_count": 0, "context_signal_forecast_effect": 0, "context_assessment_count": 2, "context_assessment_forecast_effect": 0, "calibration_algorithm_version": "weighted-poll-baseline-0.1.0", "calibration_implementation_version": "production-poll-aggregation-backtest-0.3.0", "calibration_scope": "Out-of-time production-aggregator polling error by days before Election Day. This calibrates the polls-only baseline and does not validate the full fundamentals model.", "backtest_snapshots": [ { "days_before_election": 30, "series": "sparse_polling", "race_count": 9, "mae": 5.4175, "rmse": 5.7144, "error_sd": 5.9665, "central_80_error": [ -6.9821, 6.4282 ] }, { "days_before_election": 1, "series": "sparse_polling", "race_count": 5, "mae": 5.9542, "rmse": 7.3821, "error_sd": 6.9001, "central_80_error": [ -1.6907, 10.4817 ] } ], "layers": [ { "layer_id": "candidate_field", "label": "Major-party candidate field", "status": "major_party_nominees_set_extra_options_aggregated", "summary": "Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo are the major-party nominees. Named nonpartisan candidate Danielle Ford and Nevada's non-winning 'None' option are aggregated in this first two-major-candidate preview." }, { "layer_id": "historical_reference", "label": "Certified historical reference", "status": "descriptive_only", "summary": "The prior governor and presidential results are displayed for context and add zero forecast points." }, { "layer_id": "poll_aggregation", "label": "Poll aggregation", "status": "historically_backtested", "summary": "Reviewed polls use the same recency, quality, sponsor, and pollster-correlation controls as the archived backtest." }, { "layer_id": "directional_context", "label": "Reviewed directional context", "status": "commentary_only", "summary": "2 reviewed assessments explain direction and caveats with exactly zero forecast effect." }, { "layer_id": "combined_probability", "label": "Polling-only win probability", "status": "end_to_end_backtest_pending", "summary": "The error layer is historically calibrated; the full race-specific publication remains a research preview." } ] }, "data_quality": { "grade": "D", "label": "sparse", "score": 54, "poll_count": 2, "distinct_pollsters": 2, "fundamental_feature_count": 0, "candidate_field_status": "major_party_nominees_set_extra_options_aggregated", "warnings": [ { "code": "polling_only_research_preview", "severity": "warning", "message": "This expansion forecast is centered on reviewed polling. Certified historical results are descriptive reference points and have no separate forecast effect." }, { "code": "combined_model_backtest_pending", "severity": "warning", "message": "The polling-error layer is historically calibrated, but this race-specific publication has not completed an end-to-end out-of-sample validation cycle." }, { "code": "context_assessments_commentary_only", "severity": "info", "message": "2 reviewed context assessment(s) have exactly zero forecast effect." }, { "code": "sparse_polling", "severity": "warning", "message": "Only 2 reviewed poll(s) are included; the sparse-poll calibration is used." }, { "code": "nevada_extra_options_aggregated", "severity": "warning", "message": "Danielle Ford is a named winner-eligible nonpartisan candidate, while None cannot win. This first preview aggregates both and assigns that remainder no win probability; the displayed Aaron Ford/Joe Lombardo chances are conditional on one of those two winning." }, { "code": "nevada_sparse_sponsor_polarized_polling", "severity": "warning", "message": "Only two current qualifying poll families are included, one Democratic-sponsored and one opt-in online panel." }, { "code": "stale_polling", "severity": "warning", "message": "The newest qualifying poll ended 39 days before the cutoff." } ] }, "sources": [ { "source_id": "nv_primary_2026_ap", "title": "Lombardo and Ford win Nevada governor primaries", "publisher": "Associated Press", "canonical_url": "https://apnews.com/article/3b464ffdedf689387c5a099ba6c0d060", "source_type": "primary_results_report", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "nv_2026_candidate_field", "title": "2026 Nevada election information", "publisher": "Nevada Secretary of State", "canonical_url": "https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/election-information/2026-election-information", "source_type": "official_candidate_and_election_information", "authority_tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "nv_ppp_july_2026", "title": "Nevada governor survey memorandum", "publisher": "Public Policy Polling / Democratic Governors Association", "canonical_url": "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28504180-nevada-ppp-poll-0715-0716/", "source_type": "poll_topline", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "nv_npi_march_2026", "title": "Lombardo keeps pace with Ford as undecideds hold the balance", "publisher": "Noble Predictive Insights", "canonical_url": "https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nvgov-lombardo-keeps-pace-with-ford-as-undecideds-hold-the-balance", "source_type": "poll_release", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "nv_sos_2022_governor", "title": "Nevada 2022 general election results", "publisher": "Nevada Secretary of State", "canonical_url": "https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/county-results/", "source_type": "certified_election_result", "authority_tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "fec_2024_president", "title": "Official 2024 presidential general election results", "publisher": "Federal Election Commission", "canonical_url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5644/2024presgeresults.pdf", "source_type": "certified_election_result", "authority_tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "nv_state_control_2026", "title": "2026 governors and legislatures", "publisher": "MultiState", "canonical_url": "https://www.multistate.us/resources/2026-governors-and-legislatures", "source_type": "state_control_reference", "authority_tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "nv_governor_issues_2026", "title": "Where Nevada's 2026 governor candidates stand on the issues", "publisher": "The Nevada Independent", "canonical_url": "https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/from-abortion-to-taxes-where-nevadas-2026-governor-candidates-stand-on-the-issues", "source_type": "issue_comparison", "authority_tier": 2 } ], "movements": [], "net_change_label": null, "reproducibility": { "input_hashes": { "config": "ac415cb73c4d5129d0474af9aa23a66183f72993679b9fe3302725b630462252", "polls": "caabbed29294ab57d1ac3d3a686219399dde1ed9e93cc699dcacb3231766d643", "sources": "f487ddb0631322a44ff6d1679a55b963ce180999874d54a553ba2f93e3df1210", "context_assessments": "d4eb8eb62223cb7d18f19a2e9d73db607d6cd142db76ea91b2fcc677de0fb5c9", "events": "b02cd1556e4d38d6f119158e110e6091a8812f58adeae13888bcf137e021702d", "calibration": "dadb6e0053f3399a841ee3b6b5cccaee0868c875288d11530e324beb5acbb2c2" }, "source_manifest_sha256": "f487ddb0631322a44ff6d1679a55b963ce180999874d54a553ba2f93e3df1210", "code_revision": "5c5e61b57d2b7343a52c1333c5fccfe361b969bd", "configuration": { "schema_version": "generic-governor-model.v1", "race_id": "nevada-governor-2026", "model_kind": "polling_only_research_preview", "model_version": "0.2.0", "methodology_version": "generic-polling-0.2", "candidate_field_status": "major_party_nominees_set_extra_options_aggregated", "candidate_field_summary": "Aaron Ford and Joe Lombardo are the major-party nominees. Named nonpartisan candidate Danielle Ford and Nevada's non-winning 'None' option are aggregated in this first two-major-candidate preview.", "election": { "name": "2026 Nevada gubernatorial election", "date": "2026-11-03", "timezone": "America/Los_Angeles", "rule": "plurality" }, "simulation": { "count": 40000, "seed": 2026082402 }, "candidates": [ { "candidate_id": "aaron_ford", "name": "Aaron Ford", "party": "Democratic", "role": "democratic_nominee" }, { "candidate_id": "joseph_lombardo", "name": "Joe Lombardo", "party": "Republican", "role": "republican_nominee" }, { "candidate_id": "other_candidates", "name": "Danielle Ford, None, and others (aggregate)", "party": "Other", "role": "aggregate_remainder", "is_aggregate": true } ], "reference_results": [ { "stage_id": "previous_governor_result", "label": "Certified 2022 governor result", "description": "Steve Sisolak versus Joe Lombardo, with other named candidates and None retained in the remainder.", "democratic_share": 47.297097, "republican_share": 48.806904, "other_share": 3.895999, "source_ids": [ "nv_sos_2022_governor" ] }, { "stage_id": "presidential_2024_result", "label": "Certified 2024 presidential result", "description": "Nevada's certified presidential vote, shown only as a recent statewide comparison.", "democratic_share": 47.49, "republican_share": 50.59, "other_share": 1.92, "source_ids": [ "fec_2024_president" ] } ], "forecast": { "error_degrees_of_freedom": 7, "aggregate_share_fallback": 4.0 }, "model_warnings": [ { "code": "nevada_extra_options_aggregated", "severity": "warning", "message": "Danielle Ford is a named winner-eligible nonpartisan candidate, while None cannot win. This first preview aggregates both and assigns that remainder no win probability; the displayed Aaron Ford/Joe Lombardo chances are conditional on one of those two winning." }, { "code": "nevada_sparse_sponsor_polarized_polling", "severity": "warning", "message": "Only two current qualifying poll families are included, one Democratic-sponsored and one opt-in online panel." } ] }, "random_seed": 2026082402, "simulation_count": 40000, "artifact_hash_method": "SHA-256 of canonical JSON before reproducibility.artifact_sha256 is added", "artifact_sha256": "a026022ba3127f05f8c025c765d2c3968af88ef5a564054be6b3eadbc7ddb3fe" } }